Wednesday, January 11

The War on Iran: Phase I





   In case you didn't notice, the War on Iran has already begun.

   You won't hear that said on TV yet though. At least not on US news networks. Those corporate shills need major fireworks before it becomes profitable to switch from diversions to 24hr news coverage of burning nuke sites and Iranian radiation warnings interspersed with commercial breaks for Viagra and Wal Mart. Right now, the biggest military operation of the decade is still in Phase I. And the corporate media and all the sleazy oligarchy that stand to profit know it's probably best to instead run 24hr news coverage of the Republican primaries where the US gets to choose which corporate spokesman the Republicans are going to run against Democratic corporate spokesman Obama. That's democracy these days folks. You know, that thing the US brought to Iraq via heavy armor.

   Next up, Iran. All for WMD nukes they don't even have yet. Reruns of bullshit wars like Iraq would be really boring if the Iran attack wasn't so goddam scary in the first place. But, no matter, 2012 is an election year and nothing gets presidents re elected and clears the streets of protesters like a brand spanking new war. This war is becoming viable to the US and only one Republican presidential candidate of nine is even against the idea.

   Sure, I've written before of the possible repercussions of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuke sites and theorized why Israel wants this Iranian strike beyond preventing the Persians from achieving "theater parity" with the Israelis on the nuke front. I've said before the US have been trying to keep the Israelis reined in as far as launching the Iranian air strike solo goes but, it seems, with developments last month and with the way things are panning out in the region, it looks like the Israelis are going to be able to get the US to do the job for them. Or, at the very least, with them.

   In the wider context of the whole region, it's not just the Israelis who fear a rising Iran. The Saudis too and Sunni Arabs in general fear the growing power and influence of the Shia. They're sitting on the fourth largest oil deposit on the planet and have an ocean of natural gas on tap too. Their support of the Bahrainis versus the Saudis last year (when the Saudis began to fear a homegrown Arab Spring in their shitty Orwellian police state petro kingdom) had crown Prince Abdullah begging the US to bomb Iran for them. Just last week, the Saudis inked a deal for another 30 billion of US military tech. Also, Iranian support and arms sales to Shia terrorist organisation Hizbollah in Southern Lebanon pisses off the Israelis and they want that whole region neutralized. A war with Iran will pull an IDF tank rush into Southern Lebanon under a perfectly legit umbrella when pulled under the context of a wider regional war. As a fun side note, you know things are heating up in the region when you have a potential war that makes the Saudis and Israelis allies against a common enemy.

Note the ring of US bases and total encirclement of Iran



   Phase I:

   Phase I of any war is the infiltration phase. The recon phase. The phase where you do precision strategic damage and eliminate those targets you can't hit from the air. Special forces stuff. Assassination squads and the like. That's why five Iranian scientists and physicists have died in mysterious explosions since November 2007. The latest death of a scientist came on January 11. Next up, you break out the cyber warfare and deploy the Stuxnet computer worm that delays Iran's centrifuges and disrupts their uranium enrichment at Natanz. This extended Phase I bought time last year to bulk up Western defensive assets in 'theater'. Also, Phase I involved the deployment of drones and ever present spy satellites over the target area and bought more time to gather more intel. The recent Iranian grounding of a classified US RQ-17 stealth drone sure had the CIA and Western military think tanks scratching their heads on the state of Iranian jamming technology.

   Hence the targeted killings of Iranian 'brainy' people. Holy shit, that sounds a lot like "terrorism". I'd sure be terrified if I were an Iranian scientist right now. Of course, you won't hear that in Western media. "Targeted assassination" these days has become a less terrifying euphemism for the media to report in the West. Is not language itself amazing? You can hide any intention in there. But let's face it, if a foreign entity blows up people on the streets of New York or Jerusalem, it's automatic terrorism as far as the media is concerned.

   The interesting thing about Phase I is that it is reaching its conclusion. The final stage began in October when Western countries began running psy-ops against their own public and preparing them  for a shooting war in Iran by way of the corporate controlled media. It began with some elaborate media story about Iranian agents plotting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington but it didn't exactly fly with the public. Even the plebs are getting wise to the machinations of the plutocracy and the whole scheme just sounded like more WMD bullshit. The media then ran stories throughout November 2011 alluding to some amorphous fact that Iran has a bunch of ICBMs ready to rain down mega death on Western capitals. As if that is ever an option for Iran; launching nukes and inviting the West to glass 4000 years of Persian history back to the Stone Age.


   Of course, the Iranians are aware of Phase I and have indulged in some blustering sabre rattling of their own. This came to a crux over the holiday period when targeted Western sanctions against Iran's central bank caused a 10% drop in their currency in a single day. That kind of action hurts but the real question on the table is if the West is prepared to go through with its threat of an oil embargo on Iran. Since 70% of the Iranian economy is based on oil exports, that's the kind of action that would really hurt. Sure, Russia and China would veto any such action if it came to a vote at the UN but that might not matter. The USS Stennis carrier group offshore right now could easily enforce the blockade. The real question is if the West hates Iran enough to take their oil off the market thus causing a spike in oil prices and inhibiting the 'recovery' in fragile Western economies. Yes, the Saudis claim they could make up the shortfall but that is most likely bullshit considering the dirty little secret of the Middle East is that Saudi oil fields are past peak output and getting pumped full of seawater to keep the spice flowing to the top of their wells.





   What has been holding Phase II of this war back (the actual US/Israeli air strike on Iran's 15 nuke sites) so far has been the spider tree of Iranian response strategies. Sure, Iran has no air force capable of retaliating against the encircling US bases in the region or against Israeli population centers. Iran has so many options though, it makes Western war planners shit bricks. However, most of these are asymmetrical and involve proxy armies in Southern Lebanon or disruption of oil traffic in the narrow Straits of Hormuz. (I'll talk about those next week). More interesting right now is Iran's long and medium range missile technology (Shabab 3's and 4's) that are within range of Tel Aviv.

   Israel has always been pretty touchy about civilian casualties (given their small population and tight geography which makes targeting easier) so limiting the damage of an Iranian missile strike is key. Sure, the idea that bringing Tel Aviv under an impenetrable missile defence would be nice but, realistically, that's impossible. Even the latest advances in anti missile tech really only inhibit enemy war planners; that is, they force the enemy to put more missiles and decoys on any given target to assure destruction. They never bring you under a safety umbrella.

   Israel has not completed the formation of its four-echelon missile defense system yet. It will adopt counter-missiles of its (exo-atmospheric) echelon, which allow a second attempt to intercept a ballistic missile warhead, no sooner than 2013. The defense's third echelon - David's Sling - is still in the R&D phase. This reduces the efficacy of Israel's national missile defense, even if it is potentially strengthened by American ground-based THAAD and sea-based Aegis systems. But by 2013, Iran may have a viable war head and once that happens, theater parity is achieved on the nuke front and Iran becomes another North Korea.

   That is, non attackable.

   This is abhorrent to Western military planners and why Phase II, the actual air assault, could come this year. One interesting but quiet development was this week's deployment of US Air Force personnel to Israel ostensibly to run exercises that "simulate the interception of missile salvos against Israel. The American systems will work in conjunction with Israel’s missile defense systems – the Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome." That right there is Phase II planning aimed at mitigating the possible Iranian response to a large scale joint US and Israeli strike against Iran.

   I've written about the Israeli strike before but next week I'll talk about Phase II and how that analysis changes with the US fully engaged. Stay tuned, deploy popcorn.

   2012 could get interesting fast.

62 comments:

  1. I was waiting for this. Popcorn is ready.

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  2. Charlie Chickenhawk (Recruiting Offices Now Open)January 11, 2012 at 9:53 AM

    Yea! Let's kill everyone of those camel humping towel heads and take their oil. What are these hajis thinkin' being born on top of our oil.

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    Replies
    1. American, FUCK YEA!!

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    2. Oil, regime change, democracy, nation-building. Take you pick from the Bullshit Lexicon. It will hinge of whether O thinks it will help his election prospects. His and his buddies in Europe, Sarko etc.

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  3. Fantastic analysis as usual WT.

    Looking forward to next week and how this strike would play out.

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  4. Great read, as usual

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  5. I would like to say something more exciting but: Fantastic. Great text.

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  6. Excellent article. Nice one

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  7. When I saw the dead Iranian scientist I knew exactly where I needed to go. Scary good stuff.

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    Replies
    1. Too true. WT is my new source for international absurdity.

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  8. What happens if the US attacks Iran and China sends the US an ultimatum to "Stop the attacks or else!"?

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    Replies
    1. The US will refuse, China will call all their US Treasury bonds, the US will default, Europe will follow, the central bank house of cards will collapse, fun will be had by all.

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  9. @ZA -

    Couldn't have said it better myself. It will be interesting to see how the government attempts to sell this war to the public yet again.

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    Replies
    1. They won't have to sell. The US will continue to push Iran by freezing assets and extorting other countries to isolate Iran in every way possible. When Iran responds the US will say "they started it" and the mindless americans will support "self defense" by the US. Easy peasy japanesey.

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  10. War Tard, who are you really?

    I keep wanting to believe you are full of shit but you keep delivering stuff that is either true, namely your exact analysis of the Libyan war and how Qadaffi would fall (with the added beachfront property refuge that you mentioned months before it was later proved to be true when Mexican officials bagged cash to put Qadaffis family on an 18 hole golf resort).

    Are you a dissident US military analyst with a blog or a smart guy bullshitting?

    Either way, keep posting.

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  11. No BS. My guess: History major (I will also accept math major who took Occidental Civilization to fulfill humanities req), time in the service (he knows an awful lot about weapons), one of the War Colleges perhaps, but for some reason is now attached to States and not the DoD. Given the traditional rivalry between States and Defense, I can see why WarTard seems so disdainful of the jingoism but at the same time, providing really pessimistic misanthropic analysis (that's been on the mark, so far). I don't know why Wired DangerRoom hasn't discovered him. Probably because he has a real job that doesn't involve blogging.

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    Replies
    1. How exactly has it been on the mark?
      Reading this trite uber leftist horseshit long after the fact makes for ridiculous amounts of hilarity.
      I mean how is this asshat NOT full of bs he's quite literally a leftard who believes the War for Oil nonsense (btw even before this claptrap was written where exactly is the oil my corporate overlords are fighting this war over?).

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  12. If you ran for election, you'd have my vote.

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    Replies
    1. War Tard, how does he work?

      Seriously, he'd make for the worst politician ever. Not because I would not vote for him. But delivering the truth these days is a hard sell.

      I prefer him as he is, the most under rated blog on the interweb.

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  13. The NDAA/SOPA/PIPA are likely a part of phase one. When phase 2 hits, the US will be able to easily suppress and eliminate dissent and protest uprisings. The People won't tolerate another war, they know it, and they are preparing on all fronts.

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  14. Let's suggest Jon Stewart to mention WarTard, as a preventive strike against the big bro' that will tend to shut down any dissident discourse if, sorry, when the Phase II starts...

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  15. "by 2013, Iran may have a viable war head"

    What grounds are there for treating that as anything other than the remotest possibility?

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  16. You can bet if SOPA passes, this site will be taken down Ultra quick, cant have the truth getting out.

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    Replies
    1. WarTard,

      I hope your taking note of that comment and have setup suitable mirrors/ archive dumps elsewhere.

      It's a pretty good point..

      Delete
  17. US builds hospitals in Georgia, readies for war with Iran

    http://rt.com/politics/us-georgia-iran-war-441/

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  18. Good to see you stopped writing that a bunch of right wing Israelis are going to start a war, and that the youacknowledge that Sunni Arabs and Israelis are planning together.

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  19. Yeah. And I'm sure 'right wing Israelis' had absoutely nothing to do with the Jan 11 bomb in Tehran that killed yet another Iranian scientist. In some circles, shit like that could be considered an 'act of war'. I haven't stopped writing anything or changed my view on this in any way.

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    Replies
    1. Wake up, the war has already started.

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    2. I know bro. I'm the one who wrote the whole article.

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    3. I meant to say, from poolside, in the sunny Caribbean, with all due respect, the "war" is already in progress. But not to worry, our President has no desire or intention to get into a shooting fight.

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    4. If you think the president has squat to do with starting another war you are smoking some good schiznit.

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  20. I don't think there are air bases in Pakistan.

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    Replies
    1. Not true my friend.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shamsi_air_base

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    2. According to that wiki article, it says they got evicted and vacated the area in December 2011.

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    3. So like 2 weeks ago then?

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  21. Ever considered doing a post about the German 88mm Flak/Anti-Tank gun. Sorry if off topics of the warpigs and Strangeloves with a hard on for war with Iran.

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  22. This does not look anything like preparing for strike as one front. All this talk in media is just Israel trying to push White House to direction it wants. Israeli attacks against Iranian scientists are more or less just provocations and buying their time. If they can make Iran to retaliate, US might be dragged to war it don't need or want.

    Pentagon is against attacking Iran because they think that Iran has “escalation dominance” over US. US does not have option of land war against Iran like it has done in Iraq and Afghanistan, so any attack just starts a war and leaves it to Iranians to decide when to end it. Strike might start 10 or 30 year long relatively small intensity warfare that would include Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and oil fields and pipes in Caucasus and gulf countries. If US would lose that, it would be real loss, not anything like leaving Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam.

    I'm pretty sure that if Bush&Cheney had no balls to start war with Iran against JCS opinion, nobody has. Not that Obama really wants it either. He is just playing tough in public.

    I predict that eventually Iran can go forward and enrich the uranium it wants. It will also enrich enough plutonium to make it possible to create nuke in short notice. US will privately tell the Iranians that as long as Iranians don't give nuke material to third parties like Hezbollah, they can have it. Israel will get new weapons and money from US.

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  23. Sweet article. You projected all my thoughts. You also gave a methodical factual non biased analysis IMO which i think is awesome. Keep it going bro

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  24. Very entertaining article but probably exaggerated. A war with Iran will never happen simply because it's not good for business. Oil is too precious for the West to risk the flow.

    2012 will be fine. 2022, I'll agree with the author, I'm worried about.

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    Replies
    1. So wrong!!! The top 1% don't give a sneeze for the rest of us! They will be very happy if the rest of the US goes toes up. They are already preparing for martial law in the US. Watch the NATO/G-8 conference. They are testing their weapons just like the Germans did 1936-1939.

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  25. The cowboys (B&C) considered it I'm sure and didn't go there. They'd have to destabilize all potential backing countries which is impossible because there are just too many and Russia is likely one of them.

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  26. IMHO, an important issue, as addressed in the article, is about the oil that would be taken off the market should we try to implement that.

    http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article2782682.ece

    China is Iran's biggest customer. I don't think China is going to stand for a lot risk regarding their oil imports. Cutting off other people's supply of oil can sometimes piss them off.

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  27. Foolish people. Americans will be greeted in the streets of Tehran as liberators. Trust us- we've got a *lot* of experience to back this up. You'll see.

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  28. Today would be a great day to put up Part 2. While I'm all for a good internet circle jerk protest, it's really killing my lack of productivity. Save me War Tard!

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    Replies
    1. LOL at a fellow redditor going through withdrawl symptoms :)

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    2. I've clicked that god damned reddit tab so many times subconsciously it's ridiculous. They should let you in if you can prove that you've emphatically reached out to your legislators. I needs me some cat pics and tired out memes!

      Delete
  29. Question: Given the USA's ever-cozier relationship with Georgia, do you think the South Ossetian war was Russia's attempt to delay a war against Iran?

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  30. Not too terrible WT. I wish we would just blow ourselves 'up' already. I'm getting tired of this postponed climax. My balls can't get any bluer.

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  31. The Yanks aren't going to start anything other than another bowel evacuation if the loonie Israelis attack Iran, itself a very, very doubtful move.

    Anyone reading between the lines of the world media already realizes this is a cat-mouse game which includes (despite the denials) pleas by the US and others for Iran to sit down and talk.

    Iran is stating clearly it is willing to talk, but as usual the US and friends deny, deny and deny.

    Let's face it, China needs Iran's oil and while they might go along diplomaticaly and huff and puff about sanctions, it will not shut down its economy.

    Japan is in the same Iranian boat on fuel and simply has no choice but to keep on buying becasue the Saudi's despite offers to supply them, are incapable of shifting their delivery systems.

    Let's face it, if the US were to go in and were to win a quick war (unlikely in the extreme) China knows their contracts with iran would be toast. Would you trust a US politicians who assures you with a "trust me"? And are you intrested in a couple of bridges?

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  32. "next week I'll talk about Phase II" - Wednesday, January 11, 2012
    Come on man, its been 12 days! My refresh button is wearing out.

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  33. Embargo on Iranian oil in now in effect, Iranian Money is frozen.

    War is on the way

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  34. Liberty cannot flourish in a country that is permanently on a war footing. Unrest and insecurity lead to more control by central governments and an increase of their power. A permanent crisis justifies permanent control of everybody and everything by the agencies of the central government, and a permanent crisis is what we have to expect in a world of terrorism - regardless of the package it's presented to us in. Terrorism is a god damn tactic, how does one declare a war on it? It's an intangible thing, an idea, an abstraction that cannot be "defeated", just as "flanking" cannot be stopped with bullets or missiles. That would be akin to fighting depression with a baseball bat.

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  35. Has anyone noticed the recent stories of US rescuing Iranian fisherman on more than one occasion? What kind of propaganda is this?

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  36. I'm getting blue balls waiting for your next article. Also, I think your content is good enough to warrant a dollar donation per post.

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  37. "Smart leaders like Churchill"; you might want to listen to this sometime. Gives a really interesting different perspective on things.
    http://reasonradionetwork.com/20120208/the-mark-weber-report-the-enduring-dangerous-legacy-of-winston-churchill

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  38. @ anon
    dont speak for all iranians since you seem to hold a minority opinion. no one has the omniscient ability to speak for other people including me, but in my observations (not sure what planet youre on) we iranians DO NOT LIKE ISRAEL because if you havent noticed, they dont like anyone that happens to be in the way of the tendrils of their every-creeping territorial boundaries (its legality and legitimacy is a topic in itself). we love good people, american or israeli, but in regards to politics and national administration you are grossly wrong.
    and if iraninas "hate" islam, as you have said you do, then you are ignorant and prejudice. Im not Muslim but i have enough human decency to see a very clear indication youre opinion is not objective, and as you so clearly put backed by "hate".
    i voted for Ahmadinejad and im not a 60 yr old islam thumper. why? because even though i dont like a few things about him, he was the only one who would stand up for irans international independance. i dont mean weapons but the sentiment that he would not let us get trampled on or infiltrated politically like the rest of the middle east.
    the american economy is pretty clearly fixed on its war endeavors.
    im iranian and ive been so worried i cant sleep.
    its not fair what america gets away with...or perhaps it is fair considering no one cares to do a little research, let alone actually put effort into campaigning against something. thats the stipulation, thats the responsibility of being a supposed american--we are supposed to keep our leaders in check. our agendas should be focused on domestic problems, not creating international issues.

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    Replies
    1. So what you’re suggesting is that America should not focus on Iranians having weekly US Flag burning sessions for the last 30 years? Or the fact that they celebrated every attack on Jewish or American life with song and dance, even when their religion looks down on singing and dancing…? What about the fact that they fund, and support every Islamic terror , and thus in turn are responsible for turning Israel from the only real democracy in the ME to Military driven society due to all the conflict being forced on their cities, people and boarders.
      Iran and Iranians need to take responsibility for Hamas and Hezbollah actions and how they try to control the Middle East through these terror proxy groups.
      They need to take responsibility for their hate speech, if they ever want to have a positive look in the eyes of the west.
      So far all we see is a bunch of crazed nutcases huffing and puffing about restrictions, but never do they care to see that these restrictions are being implemented to ensure that your hateful rhetoric is never given room to grow to fruition.
      There is a saying here in NY, "If you don’t want trouble, don’t start trouble". Meaning if you don’t want half the world military breathing down all your boarders, then stop the weekly hate chanting and except the protocols being presented by the international community. Only then can the diplomatic process for nuclear technology begin….

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