In my last post over New Years', I honestly tried to make a case that this war must end, a peace deal must be had or the danger of contagion and escalation is too great to allow this war to continue. Guess what, nobody read it. A border dispute between two neighboring countries has engulfed the planet, drawn factions, split alliances and is on its way to places I can't imagine. I became politically aware in the late '80s and even I knew as a kid that the Berlin Wall crumbling was something. I grew up in a time where nukes were a very real and ever present possibility. And today, the chances of such a war are higher than ever and the kids don't care. Because they don't know. So, since a call for peace gets me nowhere, let me show you war.
For those of you with a distaste for horror, close this article now because I'm going to show some sick shit just to know what your taxes are paying for. If peace doesn't sell, then at least know what you are buying.
First off, let's analyze the war.
Russia should have won it in six months. The feint toward Kiev from the north was supposed to induce a surrender. The other attacks from Sumy, south of Kharkov, north from Crimea and the main armored thrust to the vital rail hub at Mariupol was supposed to overwhelm the Ukrainians. A peace deal then would have ended it. Donbass and Luhansk go to Russia since that's what the people who live there want. Bring in the UN and hold a vote. Ukraine cannot join NATO would be Russia's only stipulation because such a measure puts short range nukes within 200 miles of Moscow. And allows NATO to put bases miles from Moscow which are simply untenable and unfair after the tacit post war agreement that was made by Clinton after the collapse of the Soviet Union; NATO would not encroach on former territories and place once governed by the Soviets. (Cuban missile crisis all over again). In fact, what need of NATO in 1991 since the Warsaw Pact had dissolved? It's whole reason for being had evaporated. If this take makes me a Russian shill go make a case in the comments.
Power once accumulated never dissolves by itself. (NAFO) It only gets destroyed by a greater power.
Yes, the Russians have nukes but so do the US and the idea was lets work together to stop their proliferation and reduce our stockpiles. That was a fair deal in 1997. We were on the cusp of a new age. Each country built modules for the International Space Station and it all worked. And look where we are now? Closer to nuclear war than in all of history. Check the Doomsday Clock. Think about that? How did humanity degrade intellectually and morally and let that happen?
But that's a philosophical question right?
I'm here to talk raw war and what's coming will come while you sleep unless something drastically changes.
The West has gone from sending money, taxpayer money, most of it laundered back to US defense contractors (through Ukrainian banks) and back to US political campaigns to keep the extraction of the work and daily grind of the US and European people as a source of income that can be skimmed and the use of it in the building of a massive security and surveillance state. The rest is being sold off as soon as if arrives in Lviv. Shoulder mounted missiles that can shoot down a civilian airliner are being sold on the Dark Web as as I type. All of them supplied to Ukraine officials via the US and EU. Assange is still in jail for saying exactly this. With proof.
Now swap Afghanistan for Ukraine. It's a money laundering operation.
"The war is not meant to be won. It is meant to be continuous. The essential act of modern warfare is the destruction of the produce of human labor. A hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. In principle, the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects, and its object is not victory over Russia or China, but to keep the very structure of society intact."
With NATO pushing this war beyond what is necessary or logical, sending tanks, artillery, satellite intelligence, targeting information, advanced missiles, advanced jamming tech, high tech radar; at what point does Russia, whose population now see this war, for good or ill, as an existential war for survival, accept a loss?
Let me give you a battlefield example.
Let's take the city of Bakhmut. It's a major transport hub with what used to have 70k people living in it. It's the administrative capital of a an Oblast(State) in Donbass.. The Ukrainians have poured at best reckoning 50k troops into defending it. It's a built up area so a nightmare for the Russians to clear building by building without incurring terrible losses against defenders in prepared positions.
In the interest of neutrality, the red circle shows what the Russians captured last week. Bakhmut, is in danger of encirclement. I rarely show maps on this blog because due to the fog of war, I believe both sides are lying but people I know and trust say it's true.
Bakhmut is now "operationally surrounded". That means the Russians have the town of Soledar to the North (circled), Wagner forces are in possession of the road and rail from the South West and the only road in from larger towns to the East like Kramatorsk which is a conurbation ( of over 200k people mostly evacuated) along with a string of other towns in token amounts that form a defensive line 40 miles to Bakhmut's rear. There are by NATO estimates 50,00 Ukrainian, Polish, mercenary troops in Bakhmut. That road from Kramatorsk is useless because even though the Russians do not hold it, they can lay down artillery and destroy anything that attempts to move along that road. So Bakhmut is effectively caught in what the Russians call a cauldron and western military call surrounded in effect..
So here's your horror story.
The Ukrainians do not surrender. They sit on half rations and wait from a NATO armored brigade to break through and rescue 50,000 Ukrainian troops from a otherwise Russian war winning scenario.
Is it possible?
I don't think so. But if the Russians saw that a hard fought war winning end to fighting in Donbass and if foreign forces were rescued by a NATO armored division, would not the temptation be to launch a battlefield small 15 kiloton yield nuke into Bakhmut and airburst it over the town hall and at least fry half the the enemy? After all, the object of war is to win. And since Russia is a a country if 130 million people under attack now by NATO, a billion people, why would they not feel justified in using such a weapon? I am not saying they would be right, I'm saying they could be pushed into a corner where they say, if we go down, then you go down. It is not a moral argument. It is an emotional one. If I were to list the amount of battles fought and lost on emotion, I think I could go 40%
This is the danger the world is playing with. Worse, a few people are playing with.
This was in the 1950s. Just imagine what they have now. Limited, battlefield nuclear ordinance. Airburst, minimal fallout, follow up attack by armored vehicles. It's coming while you sleep and worry about the gas bill and sausages.
WWIII is in full effect. Not tomorrow. Not yesterday. Now.
It's just the average person doesn't even know it yet beyond the cost of heating his home, eggs are expensive and good luck finding a steak you can afford. I don't know what to say but the people in charge lied to you about a bug no more dangerous than the flu and they are lying to you now. Ukraine could surrender in the morning and keep three quarters of its land area. A deal could be made. But it cannot be allowed.
The West's goal is to attrite Russia because of her vast raw material wealth. Her existence has become too dangerous. Her alliance with China is even more terrifying. This has all been known for a decade. It's a belt and road initiative the US has no answer for. The danger is in the unity of the Eurasian landmass that puts the US an island an isolated block in the sea.
But now we are on the edge of a hot war.
And very few, least of all the politicians providing these weapons, know the heat of the fire they are playing with.
If we are to die in a war like this, then let us deserve it.
But not like this. Not in our name. Otherwise, let's stop it.
This war is over. NATO can throw in some vehicles to prolong it a few weeks. But Ukraine is done. The only question left is how much does Russia want? Donbass will crush the Ukrainian Army. That's already happening.
In my opinion, the Russian capture of Odessa would destroy Ukraine forever. No access to the sea, I believe the Russians will call a halt here and take the win. They will leave Kiev to the Europeans, a black hole of corruption, money laundering and theft. Let them pour billions into keeping it running.
Meanwhile, the Russians will relax on the beach and get there sunburn from the sun or the sun NATO fission detonates out of frustration.
I get it. This war is getting awful. Christmas is over. The war is a mess but I'm John Lennon level naïve. And I am about to make a prediction. And making any prediction in this Russia v Ukraine war is pure folly. But I'm going to do it anyway. Hold my beer, but I think this war has to end and will end geopolitically but it also must end militarily. Unfortunately, however, to get to a place of no more shooting, there's going to have to be a whole lot more shooting. Because the risk of contagion and the fear of it is growing. This war ends this year. It has to. Screenshot this. I'm not wrong. If Russia and Ukraine are battling it out a year from now, then I'm the idiot. But I'm calling an end to this war. It is simply not sustainable. And if it is, then God help us all.
And here's why.
The US (irresponsibly but by some measure tactically) and its vassal state the EU have provided enough weaponry and cash to Ukraine that has tilted the war. Putin made a mistake; he thought a show of force would win this war back in March. A quick Ukrainian surrender, like he wanted but did not get. That Russian convoy South toward Kiev in March, and the attacks south from Sumy did not work. Let's face it, the Russians thought they could win this war on the cheap (160,00 men and 50k obsolete Soviet tanks and APCs).
I am going to have to give the Ukrainians credit here, what a defense!
It's been interesting to watch this war. It's my favorite kind of war, if one can have a favorite kind of war. Some like Issus. Others Waterloo. But I like tanks, artillery, modern missile tech, total air defense to the point that grounds enemy air forces, mechanized infantry all rolling across green mottled forested terrain. We haven't seen war like this since the Wehrmacht made a bid for Stalingrad.
Ukrainian T-90 with full reactive armor/explosive defense package. The real gear.
Let's face it, nobody called this war correctly back in February.
Myself included. I believed the Russians would win this war in six months. In fact, I called out The New York Times and other publications when they claimed this war would be over in a month. But the thing I love about military history is that nobody gets it right, not mainstream publications and not even the Field Marshalls. War is too fluid, too reliant on the whims of chance, equipment, morale, readiness, terrain, numerical strength... and the weather.
So, where do we stand?
Russia has military problems and Europe has serious energy problems. And the US, despite inflation and fuel costs is not too worried. The US can just print more paper. But there is darkness behind all of this. Russia cannot be backed into a corner. Russia cannot lose this war if only for dignity's sake. Russia has nukes and any country with nukes shall not subject herself to humiliation or defeat. And the Russian people, despite what you may hear are behind this war.
And this is why a peace deal is an opportunity now. If the Ukrainians were actually running this war, I'd smell a peace deal over the Eastern Orthodox Christmas ceasefire. The US are watching the Russians via satellite. And the Russians are watching NATO via satellite. The US and its serious military agencies like the Pentagon have signaled that a major Russian offensive is coming.
But the crowd in Washington, who were young men at the height of the Cold War and never served in the military have never gotten over the "Russians are the bad guys" thing. My detractors say I'm in the Russian camp. Nope, sorry. I'm in the realism business and the US State Department and Biden's cabinet are living a boyhood fantasy. They're playing toy soldiers with someone else's soldiers. That's stone cold cynical if you ask me.
Maybe the civilians at the US State Department got the wrong toy set when they were kids?
Just look at this kids war pack above available on Amazon right now for 135 billion dollars. It's a shitshow. You've got an F-117 stealth fighter doing close air support around a base that hasn't even erected any concrete T-wall barriers. Meanwhile, you've got a runway down the middle of the field with an F-15 and an F-16 pointing at each like they're playing a game of chicken in the middle of a firefight while the flight boss is losing his shit standing on a gantry dodging sniper fire. Worst of all, some fucknut decided to build a ski jump ramp from the Command Center directly onto the runway just in case Maverick dodges Iceman on takeoff. And finally, the chow tent is in the middle of the boondocks. But hey, at least the M1-Abrahms is making a run unsupported at the enemy infantry.
What's the end game here?
I mean in the Ukraine playset.
The longer this war goes on, the greater the chances of contagion grow. Poland in particular is itching for a fight. They are in the process of mobilizing 200,000 men. Who knows what Romania is putting together. The propaganda is so thick that everyone smells blood in the water. The US and Europe think Russia can be beaten. As if the Russians, under attack from all the countries to her West will go down without falling back on her nuclear arsenal. She'll nuke from orbit and make sure.
The Poles and Romanians are already in Ukraine as mercs as are the US, UK and the rest operating the weaponry it would take six months to train the Ukrainians to use.
The only off ramp I see here is someone's got to make a deal.
The Russians have Mariupol and a land bridge to Crimea. Hard won. And there is no way they are giving it back. Putin can sell this as a victory to his Russian population and NATO can sell Ukraine as a war won because they stopped the 'evil' Russians crossing the Dnieper and capturing Kiev. In a mass media, 24hr news environment where everything is lies, it just might work. Ukraine keeps Odessa and her access to the Black Sea and Russia has 'liberated' its Russian speaking population. International inspectors come in and conduct elections in the captured provinces and all parties agree by the result. Nobody wins. Nobody loses. (Or gets annihilated). The wins and losses are accepted as a point of war. (Screencap this prediction).
If not, 2023 is going to be a very bad year.
The Russians are amassing troops and from my sources it is 300k+ and they are breaking out their top equipment. Maybe it's all a bluff. Half of this force is sitting in Belorussia. Either as an army in waiting, or merely an army whose only purpose is to exist as a possible attack vector; and as much as I hate to use a Trumpism, this force in Belarus could be 4d chess. Either way, the Russians are not going to stop. Just like NATO didn't stop in Iraq, took 20 years to stop fighting goat herders in Afghanistan, obliterated Libya and would have obliterated Syria if the Russians hadn't intervened because they wanted their base at Tartus.
If it's true what Ursula van der Leyen let slip that the Ukrainians have lost 100,000 men and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in a recent leaked memo said 35,000 men "are missing" (that conveniently means no widow's pension or payout to families). And just imagine the costs of rebuilding Ukraine not only now but after a Russian full multi-pronged assault?
The Ukrainians under Nuland and the CIA installed that Ukrainian government in 2014, shot protesters in the streets, broke the Minsk Agreements, and shelled Donbass for 8 years. There's only so long you can poke a bear.
But remember, who's the big winner in all of this. The US and Saudi Arabia and petrodollar stability. Germany, Europe's biggest exported by far and the power behind the value of the Euro watches as its industry implodes without cheap Russian energy. Was that the real target or just a bonus? Saudi Arabia sure wins. Now Europe buys gas at triple the price on floating Hiroshima's. Ten Iranian speedboats rush one of those with anti-ship missiles while it's docked in Hamburg and we're looking at the biggest non-nuclear explosion in history. And with all the black-market weaponry spewing out of Ukraine at the moment, this is not beyond the realm of possibility.
Why have a pipeline when you can have a ship 3 weeks slower with gas 5 times the cost
from a country that beheads women in public stadiums for the crime of adultery?
What if a side benefit of all this is the destruction of Europe, a "great reset" as our latest Dr Strangelove named his book. Are we all to be made poor carbon zero, massively surveilled and limited to electric cars and tear the Earth to shreds mining Lithium for batteries and hoping the wind blows or the sun shines so we can have a warm shower?
How the mighty have fallen.
Maybe that nuke mightn't be so bad after all. Because it's never going to be 2019 ever again.