I get it. This war is getting awful. Christmas is over. The war is a mess but I'm John Lennon level naïve. And I am about to make a prediction. And making any prediction in this Russia v Ukraine war is pure folly. But I'm going to do it anyway. Hold my beer, but I think this war has to end and will end geopolitically but it also must end militarily. Unfortunately, however, to get to a place of no more shooting, there's going to have to be a whole lot more shooting. Because the risk of contagion and the fear of it is growing. This war ends this year. It has to. Screenshot this. I'm not wrong. If Russia and Ukraine are battling it out a year from now, then I'm the idiot. But I'm calling an end to this war. It is simply not sustainable. And if it is, then God help us all.
And here's why.
The US (irresponsibly but by some measure tactically) and its vassal state the EU have provided enough weaponry and cash to Ukraine that has tilted the war. Putin made a mistake; he thought a show of force would win this war back in March. A quick Ukrainian surrender, like he wanted but did not get. That Russian convoy South toward Kiev in March, and the attacks south from Sumy did not work. Let's face it, the Russians thought they could win this war on the cheap (160,00 men and 50k obsolete Soviet tanks and APCs).
I am going to have to give the Ukrainians credit here, what a defense!
It's been interesting to watch this war. It's my favorite kind of war, if one can have a favorite kind of war. Some like Issus. Others Waterloo. But I like tanks, artillery, modern missile tech, total air defense to the point that grounds enemy air forces, mechanized infantry all rolling across green mottled forested terrain. We haven't seen war like this since the Wehrmacht made a bid for Stalingrad.
Ukrainian T-90 with full reactive armor/explosive defense package. The real gear.
Let's face it, nobody called this war correctly back in February.
Myself included. I believed the Russians would win this war in six months. In fact, I called out The New York Times and other publications when they claimed this war would be over in a month. But the thing I love about military history is that nobody gets it right, not mainstream publications and not even the Field Marshalls. War is too fluid, too reliant on the whims of chance, equipment, morale, readiness, terrain, numerical strength... and the weather.
So, where do we stand?
Russia has military problems and Europe has serious energy problems. And the US, despite inflation and fuel costs is not too worried. The US can just print more paper. But there is darkness behind all of this. Russia cannot be backed into a corner. Russia cannot lose this war if only for dignity's sake. Russia has nukes and any country with nukes shall not subject herself to humiliation or defeat. And the Russian people, despite what you may hear are behind this war.
And this is why a peace deal is an opportunity now. If the Ukrainians were actually running this war, I'd smell a peace deal over the Eastern Orthodox Christmas ceasefire. The US are watching the Russians via satellite. And the Russians are watching NATO via satellite. The US and its serious military agencies like the Pentagon have signaled that a major Russian offensive is coming.
But the crowd in Washington, who were young men at the height of the Cold War and never served in the military have never gotten over the "Russians are the bad guys" thing. My detractors say I'm in the Russian camp. Nope, sorry. I'm in the realism business and the US State Department and Biden's cabinet are living a boyhood fantasy. They're playing toy soldiers with someone else's soldiers. That's stone cold cynical if you ask me.
Just look at this kids war pack above available on Amazon right now for 135 billion dollars. It's a shitshow. You've got an F-117 stealth fighter doing close air support around a base that hasn't even erected any concrete T-wall barriers. Meanwhile, you've got a runway down the middle of the field with an F-15 and an F-16 pointing at each like they're playing a game of chicken in the middle of a firefight while the flight boss is losing his shit standing on a gantry dodging sniper fire. Worst of all, some fucknut decided to build a ski jump ramp from the Command Center directly onto the runway just in case Maverick dodges Iceman on takeoff. And finally, the chow tent is in the middle of the boondocks. But hey, at least the M1-Abrahms is making a run unsupported at the enemy infantry.
What's the end game here?
I mean in the Ukraine playset.
The longer this war goes on, the greater the chances of contagion grow. Poland in particular is itching for a fight. They are in the process of mobilizing 200,000 men. Who knows what Romania is putting together. The propaganda is so thick that everyone smells blood in the water. The US and Europe think Russia can be beaten. As if the Russians, under attack from all the countries to her West will go down without falling back on her nuclear arsenal. She'll nuke from orbit and make sure.
The only off ramp I see here is someone's got to make a deal.
The Russians have Mariupol and a land bridge to Crimea. Hard won. And there is no way they are giving it back. Putin can sell this as a victory to his Russian population and NATO can sell Ukraine as a war won because they stopped the 'evil' Russians crossing the Dnieper and capturing Kiev. In a mass media, 24hr news environment where everything is lies, it just might work. Ukraine keeps Odessa and her access to the Black Sea and Russia has 'liberated' its Russian speaking population. International inspectors come in and conduct elections in the captured provinces and all parties agree by the result. Nobody wins. Nobody loses. (Or gets annihilated). The wins and losses are accepted as a point of war. (Screencap this prediction).
If not, 2023 is going to be a very bad year.
The Russians are amassing troops and from my sources it is 300k+ and they are breaking out their top equipment. Maybe it's all a bluff. Half of this force is sitting in Belorussia. Either as an army in waiting, or merely an army whose only purpose is to exist as a possible attack vector; and as much as I hate to use a Trumpism, this force in Belarus could be 4d chess. Either way, the Russians are not going to stop. Just like NATO didn't stop in Iraq, took 20 years to stop fighting goat herders in Afghanistan, obliterated Libya and would have obliterated Syria if the Russians hadn't intervened because they wanted their base at Tartus.
If it's true what Ursula van der Leyen let slip that the Ukrainians have lost 100,000 men and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in a recent leaked memo said 35,000 men "are missing" (that conveniently means no widow's pension or payout to families). And just imagine the costs of rebuilding Ukraine not only now but after a Russian full multi-pronged assault?
The Ukrainians under Nuland and the CIA installed that Ukrainian government in 2014, shot protesters in the streets, broke the Minsk Agreements, and shelled Donbass for 8 years. There's only so long you can poke a bear.
But remember, who's the big winner in all of this. The US and Saudi Arabia and petrodollar stability. Germany, Europe's biggest exported by far and the power behind the value of the Euro watches as its industry implodes without cheap Russian energy. Was that the real target or just a bonus? Saudi Arabia sure wins. Now Europe buys gas at triple the price on floating Hiroshima's. Ten Iranian speedboats rush one of those with anti-ship missiles while it's docked in Hamburg and we're looking at the biggest non-nuclear explosion in history. And with all the black-market weaponry spewing out of Ukraine at the moment, this is not beyond the realm of possibility.
from a country that beheads women in public stadiums for the crime of adultery?
What if a side benefit of all this is the destruction of Europe, a "great reset" as our latest Dr Strangelove named his book. Are we all to be made
poor carbon zero, massively surveilled and limited to electric cars and tear the Earth to shreds mining Lithium for batteries and hoping the wind blows or the sun shines so we can have a warm shower?
How the mighty have fallen.
Maybe that nuke mightn't be so bad after all. Because it's never going to be 2019 ever again.
So long as the Russkis nuke San Francisco first, I'm okay with it.ReplyDelete
Dude, San Francisco is already a nuclear wasteland.Delete
Surely Portland goes before. I hear that evil Putler isn't a fan of the LBGT community.Delete
WT is funny. A real comedian like ZelenskyReplyDelete
I agree one hundred percent.Delete
A Russian Josef Gabcik would be a far easier off ramp for both parties.ReplyDelete
This so-called analysis merits D-ReplyDelete
So tell us all the wrongness in more than one sentence. Surely this D- deserves an explanation?Delete
Poland itching for a fight!!! Get real guyDelete
Fucking A man. WT all at sea hasent a clue. Talks about his sorces in Russia. He's a fucking botDelete
Poland not itching for a fight, They spend millions mobilizing 200,000 men for no reason whatsoever.Delete
No reason? Did you miss Russian invasion in Ukraine?Delete
Fail to prepare, prepare to failDelete
Poland itching for a fight? What a load!Delete
Theres the D-Delete
Poland giving 17 Leopard II tanks to Ukraine next week. That's pretty itchy war behavior if you ask me.Delete
That kids playset part wasted me a beer. Glad to have you back WTReplyDelete
Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates:ReplyDelete
"Time is not on Ukraine’s side"
Jan 7th 2023
A pessimistic assessment of Ukraine's situation and Russia's unrelenting determination.
They call for "a dramatic increase in military supplies and capability" from NATO.
Like the author said, the faster this ends the better.Delete
WT what do you make of reported Russian success around Bakhmut and do you think the NATO promise of Gen 5 battle tanks to Ukraine can do anything?ReplyDelete
I think it is insane. 15 UK provided Challenger II main battle tanks, 50 German Marder APCs from the Germans and twentyish French AMX-10s is generous but not war winning. It's at best an armored Brigade/ You know what the Russian response to this is? They are now mobilizing another 500,000 men. At best, 70 vehicles have drawn half a million men into the war. The entire point of my post is the danger of contagion and escalation. At this point, WWIII is in effect but they are not calling it this yet.Delete
If China makes a break for Taiwan now, the world changes into hot war. The Chinese will probably wait and see how the Russians do but the tilt in global affairs is in full effect.
We are entering a very dangerous position in world history.
Apart from the names and number of tanks WT knows fuckallDelete
What about the Brads?Delete
As usual, war fiction at it's finest. Very entertaining, although not realistic or knowledgeable at all. LNG carriers in Hamburg? What for there's no LNG terminals in Hamburg. Iranian speedboats rushing anything in German waters? I'll have whatever it is you're having. You seem to be having a blast. German economy imploding? Sure, if you call 1.9% growth in 2022 an implosion. The list goes on...ReplyDelete
"As usual" huh? This suggests you are some kind of expert on everything I've ever written? If so, I appreciate your study of my articles over the last 12 years. That's dedication. Apart from nitpicking details, do you have anything interesting to add?Delete
To be precice, how many articles have you written here in the last 12 you years? And the number doesn't exhibit any dedication whatsoever.Delete
4 articles in 2022. Now that's a prolific output! Shows such commitmentDelete
It's 'its' not it's. Also do you understand hypotheticals? An LNG ship could be attacked in Rotterdam, one could be attacked in the Suez Canal, Europe importing LNG via ship is not sustainable. Let's see what Germany's growth will be in 2023. You ignore the point of the article by focusing on minutiae. Tell me how paying triple for gas is a good thing for the EU? You can't because it isn't. And that's the point.ReplyDelete
Just spreading the Love - Thanks for the education Wartard. Always trying to comprehend & understand what’s really going on behind the curtain…ReplyDelete
NEWSFLASH! The UK is sending 14 Challenger II tanks to Ukraine. Surely the Russians will surrender in the face of such might [sic]. This war is decoupling from reality like no war I've ever seen. What is the end game from NATO's point of view? Make a fucking deal before we all die or worse, go broke.ReplyDelete
Make a deal, allow Russia to re build its army and repeat the same thing 5-10 years from nowDelete
Yeah great idea 10/10 IGN
Yeah... as much as I hate to admit it, you're right. We must turn the Earth into a nuclear wasteland and humanity must go extinct because some piece of land 95% of humans couldn't even point out on a map might lose a war somewhere, somehow. All of humanity, all knowledge, all art, all engineering, all literature, all visual media, in fact, everything created by humans must die now and immediately for a few hundred square miles of bleak fields in the middle of nowhere.Delete
The saddest extinction.
Try living 300km away from Russian missiles aimed at your home which Russia would love to take back and occupy again and maybe you'll have different opinionDelete
So you think you'll be better off wandering the nuclear wasteland, fumbling through houses already stripped of canned food, hiding from roaming gangs of cannibals, raiders, thieves. The trees dying. The sky a constant ever present grey. The roads empty but terrifying. No birdsong. No wind rushing through leaves. No going back to the way it used to be. Just an endless slumbering forward in search of sustenance on a planet where no plants grow.Delete
In case of nuclear war I'll be dead so I don't really careDelete
So far we are talking conventional war and any peace deal is pointless because Russia is guaranteed to break it sooner or later while direct or indirect threat remains the same
Peace now = war later but with for sure better prepared Russia
Hey WT, how many wars have you seen? Up close likeDelete
Ask Henry Kissinger.Delete
So then @wartard: whatever Russia wants, it gets, because nukes. Is that your position? I don't think that's going to cut it with the rest of the world.Delete
That's what WT wants. Roll over and have the Russians tickle your tummy and so he (woefully) paints a picture of a. post nuclear Armageddon. He's doing exactly what Putin is doing. Stoking fear. Why? Because he's a fucking Putin guy! Wake up people!Delete
America gets what it wants because nukes, why is it suddenly a problem for you?Delete
Latest MacGregor Update.ReplyDelete
Looks like this war will keep simmering for a while. The great powers are playing a grand balancing act.ReplyDelete
U.S. Abrams, British Challenger 2s and German Leopard 2s look to be on their way to Ukraine. Still in token amounts, but that could escalate and take on a life of its own.
Ukraine will become a fully NATO equipped military.
The U.S. is currently worried it doesn't have enough weapons & manufacturing for the next near-peer multipolar conflict with China & friends.
Here comes the Cold War 2 arms race.
I'd call it the Hot War 1Delete
Brilliant article wartard. The opening paragraph sent shudders down my spine. I'm in Romania, just next to the war. Nobody wants it here. Nobody likes the Russians. But there is no way the average person wants to get involved. I 1000% agree with you on your fear of contagion.ReplyDelete
Thank you. Apparently, I am one of the few pacifists here. Ironic since the blog is called WarTard. I could have never imagined when I started this commentary 12 years ago that people would argue that peace is bad, and we need more war. When I point this out, I get accused of loving Vladimir Putin. Where were these people when NATO murdered a million people in Iraq or hundreds of thousands in Libya? Where were they when Syria got destroyed? Hypocrisy is just something you have to live with. But it is not easy.Delete
You continue, at every opportunity, to sing from Putin's hymnbook and rail against western 'hypocracy'. No one suggests peace is a bad thing but there most certainly is a bad peace. WT wants peace at whatever cost to Ukraine. Same as Putin. That's what WT's idea of being a pacifist is, in this context. From the outset, in the pathetic few articles he's penned on this special military operation he's been clearly, consistently pro Putin, anti NATODelete
WT, there might be Romania mercs in Ukraine, but the group of soldiers, Poles, and Ukrainians and something else, the tricolor flag is not the Romanian flag, so it is something else, like Lithuania (it is Lithuania).Delete
Romanians don't like Russians, but probably like less the Ukrainians, which they neighbour and know better than the Russians, who when left in 1956, left for good, never came back. But Ukrainians always created problems with the borders, etc. And have Romanian territory on their hands and persecute the natives there. So yeah, you will find an ethnic Romanian in Ukrainian army, but no red blooded Romanian will say "Slava Ukraini!"
"War does not determine who is right — only who is left"Delete
"Bellum non decernit quis sit iustus"Delete
How does WT know how much Zelensky is worth ¢598?Delete
Cuz putin said so obv. LmaoDelete