In my last post over New Years', I honestly tried to make a case that this war must end, a peace deal must be had or the danger of contagion and escalation is too great to allow this war to continue. Guess what, nobody read it. A border dispute between two neighboring countries has engulfed the planet, drawn factions, split alliances and is on its way to places I can't imagine. I became politically aware in the late '80s and even I knew as a kid that the Berlin Wall crumbling was something. I grew up in a time where nukes were a very real and ever present possibility. And today, the chances of such a war are higher than ever and the kids don't care. Because they don't know. So, since a call for peace gets me nowhere, let me show you war.
For those of you with a distaste for horror, close this article now because I'm going to show some sick shit just to know what your taxes are paying for. If peace doesn't sell, then at least know what you are buying.
First off, let's analyze the war.
Let me show you your death.
Or your children's death. These are the weapons in play...
Russia should have won it in six months. The feint toward Kiev from the north was supposed to induce a surrender. The other attacks from Sumy, south of Kharkov, north from Crimea and the main armored thrust to the vital rail hub at Mariupol was supposed to overwhelm the Ukrainians. A peace deal then would have ended it. Donbass and Luhansk go to Russia since that's what the people who live there want. Bring in the UN and hold a vote. Ukraine cannot join NATO would be Russia's only stipulation because such a measure puts short range nukes within 200 miles of Moscow. And allows NATO to put bases miles from Moscow which are simply untenable and unfair after the tacit post war agreement that was made by Clinton after the collapse of the Soviet Union; NATO would not encroach on former territories and place once governed by the Soviets. (Cuban missile crisis all over again). In fact, what need of NATO in 1991 since the Warsaw Pact had dissolved? It's whole reason for being had evaporated. If this take makes me a Russian shill go make a case in the comments.
Power once accumulated never dissolves by itself. (NATO) It only gets destroyed by a greater power.
Yes, the Russians have nukes but so do the US and the idea was lets work together to stop their proliferation and reduce our stockpiles. That was a fair deal in 1997. We we're on the cusp of a new age. Each country-built modules for the International Space Station and it all worked. And look where we are now? Closer to nuclear war than in all of history. Check the Doomsday Clock. Think about that? How did humanity degrade intellectually and morally and let that happen?
But that's a philosophical question right?
I'm here to talk raw war and what's coming will come while you sleep unless something drastically changes.
The West has gone from sending money, taxpayer money, most of it laundered back to US defense contractors (through Ukrainian banks) and back to US political campaigns to keep the extraction of the work and daily grind of the US and European people as a source of income that can be skimmed and the use of it in the building of a massive security and surveillance state. The rest is being sold off as soon as if arrives in Lviv. Shoulder mounted missiles that can shoot down a civilian airliner are being sold on the Dark Web as as I type. All of them supplied to Ukraine officials via the US and EU. Assange is still in jail for saying exactly this. With proof.
Now swap Afghanistan for Ukraine. It's a money laundering operation.
"The war is not meant to be won. It is meant to be continuous. The essential act of modern warfare is the destruction of the produce of human labor. A hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. In principle, the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects, and its object is not victory over Russia or China, but to keep the very structure of society intact."
With NATO pushing this war beyond what is necessary or logical, sending tanks, artillery, satellite intelligence, targeting information, advanced missiles, advanced jamming tech, high tech radar; at what point does Russia, whose population now see this war, for good or ill, as an existential war for survival, accept a loss?
Let me give you a battlefield example.
Let's take the city of Bakhmut. It's a major transport hub with what used to have 70k people living in it. It's the administrative capital of a an Oblast(State) in Donbass.. The Ukrainians have poured at best reckoning 50k troops into defending it. It's a built up area so a nightmare for the Russians to clear building by building without incurring terrible losses against defenders in prepared positions.
In the interest of neutrality, the red circle shows what the Russians captured last week. Bakhmut, is in danger of encirclement. I rarely show maps on this blog because due to the fog of war, I believe both sides are lying but people I know and trust say it's true.
Bakhmut is now "operationally surrounded". That means the Russians have the town of Soledar to the North (circled), Wagner forces are in possession of the road and rail from the South West and the only road in from larger towns to the East like Kramatorsk which is a conurbation ( of over 200k people mostly evacuated) along with a string of other towns in token amounts that form a defensive line 40 miles to Bakhmut's rear. There are by NATO estimates 50,00 Ukrainian, Polish, mercenary troops in Bakhmut. That road from Kramatorsk is useless because even though the Russians do not hold it, they can lay down artillery and destroy anything that attempts to move along that road. So Bakhmut is effectively caught in what the Russians call a cauldron and western military call surrounded in effect..
So here's your horror story.
The Ukrainians do not surrender. They sit on half rations and wait from a NATO armored brigade to break through and rescue 50,000 Ukrainian troops from a otherwise Russian war winning scenario.
Is it possible?
I don't think so. But if the Russians saw that a hard fought war winning end to fighting in Donbass and if foreign forces were rescued by a NATO armored division, would not the temptation be to launch a battlefield small 15 kiloton yield nuke into Bakhmut and airburst it over the town hall and at least fry half the the enemy? After all, the object of war is to win. And since Russia is a a country if 130 million people under attack now by NATO, a billion people, why would they not feel justified in using such a weapon? I am not saying they would be right, I'm saying they could be pushed into a corner where they say, if we go down, then you go down. It is not a moral argument. It is an emotional one. If I were to list the amount of battles fought and lost on emotion, I think I could go 40%
This is the danger the world is playing with. Worse, a few people are playing with.
This was in the 1950s. Just imagine what they have now. Limited, battlefield nuclear ordinance. Airburst, minimal fallout, follow up attack by armored vehicles. It's coming while you sleep and worry about the gas bill and sausages.
WWIII is in full effect. Not tomorrow. Not yesterday. Now.
It's just the average person doesn't even know it yet beyond the cost of heating his home, eggs are expensive and good luck finding a steak you can afford. I don't know what to say but the people in charge lied to you about a bug no more dangerous than the flu and they are lying to you now. Ukraine could surrender in the morning and keep three quarters of its land area. A deal could be made. But it cannot be allowed.
The West's goal is to attrite Russia because of her vast raw material wealth. Her existence has become too dangerous. Her alliance with China is even more terrifying. This has all been known for a decade. It's a belt and road initiative the US has no answer for. The danger is in the unity of the Eurasian landmass that puts the US an island an isolated block in the sea.
But now we are on the edge of a hot war.
And very few, least of all the politicians providing these weapons, know the heat of the fire they are playing with.
If we are to die in a war like this, then let us deserve it.
But not like this. Not in our name. Otherwise, let's stop it.
This war is over.
NATO can throw in some vehicles to prolong it a few months. But Ukraine is done. The only question left is how much does Russia want? Donbass will crush the Ukrainian Army. That's already happening.
In my opinion, the Russian capture of Odessa would destroy Ukraine forever. No access to the sea, I believe the Russians will call a halt here and take the win. They will leave Kiev to the Europeans, a black hole of corruption, money laundering and theft. Let them pour billions into keeping it running.
Meanwhile, the Russians will relax on the beach and get there sunburn from the sun or the sun NATO fission detonates out of frustration
Either way, this is the most bloody and brutal war since Korea.
It affects us all and leaves us all, whether we are involed directly or tacitly; we are accepting this human meat grinder live on our TV/whatever media; we are all involved as human beings no matter where we live and if we like it or not.
In many quiet ways, we all have blood on our hands.
I get it. This war is getting awful. Christmas is over. The war is a mess but I'm John Lennon level naïve. And I am about to make a prediction. And making any prediction in this Russia v Ukraine war is pure folly. But I'm going to do it anyway. Hold my beer, but I think this war has to end and will end geopolitically but it also must end militarily. Unfortunately, however, to get to a place of no more shooting, there's going to have to be a whole lot more shooting. Because the risk of contagion and the fear of it is growing. This war ends this year. It has to. Screenshot this. I'm not wrong. If Russia and Ukraine are battling it out a year from now, then I'm the idiot. But I'm calling an end to this war. It is simply not sustainable. And if it is, then God help us all.
And here's why.
The US (irresponsibly but by some measure tactically) and its vassal state the EU have provided enough weaponry and cash to Ukraine that has tilted the war. Putin made a mistake; he thought a show of force would win this war back in March. A quick Ukrainian surrender, like he wanted but did not get. That Russian convoy South toward Kiev in March, and the attacks south from Sumy did not work. Let's face it, the Russians thought they could win this war on the cheap (160,00 men and 50k obsolete Soviet tanks and APCs).
I am going to have to give the Ukrainians credit here, what a defense!
It's been interesting to watch this war. It's my favorite kind of war, if one can have a favorite kind of war. Some like Issus. Others Waterloo. But I like tanks, artillery, modern missile tech, total air defense to the point that grounds enemy air forces, mechanized infantry all rolling across green mottled forested terrain. We haven't seen war like this since the Wehrmacht made a bid for Stalingrad.
Ukrainian T-90 with full reactive armor/explosive defense package. The real gear.
Let's face it, nobody called this war correctly back in February.
Myself included. I believed the Russians would win this war in six months. In fact, I called out The New York Times and other publications when they claimed this war would be over in a month. But the thing I love about military history is that nobody gets it right, not mainstream publications and not even the Field Marshalls. War is too fluid, too reliant on the whims of chance, equipment, morale, readiness, terrain, numerical strength... and the weather.
So, where do we stand?
Russia has military problems and Europe has serious energy problems. And the US, despite inflation and fuel costs is not too worried. The US can just print more paper. But there is darkness behind all of this. Russia cannot be backed into a corner. Russia cannot lose this war if only for dignity's sake. Russia has nukes and any country with nukes shall not subject herself to humiliation or defeat. And the Russian people, despite what you may hear are behind this war.
And this is why a peace deal is an opportunity now. If the Ukrainians were actually running this war, I'd smell a peace deal over the Eastern Orthodox Christmas ceasefire. The US are watching the Russians via satellite. And the Russians are watching NATO via satellite. The US and its serious military agencies like the Pentagon have signaled that a major Russian offensive is coming.
But the crowd in Washington, who were young men at the height of the Cold War and never served in the military have never gotten over the "Russians are the bad guys" thing. My detractors say I'm in the Russian camp. Nope, sorry. I'm in the realism business and the US State Department and Biden's cabinet are living a boyhood fantasy. They're playing toy soldiers with someone else's soldiers. That's stone cold cynical if you ask me.
Maybe the civilians at the US State Department got the wrong toy set when they were kids?
Just look at this kids war pack above available on Amazon right now for 135 billion dollars. It's a shitshow. You've got an F-117 stealth fighter doing close air support around a base that hasn't even erected any concrete T-wall barriers. Meanwhile, you've got a runway down the middle of the field with an F-15 and an F-16 pointing at each like they're playing a game of chicken in the middle of a firefight while the flight boss is losing his shit standing on a gantry dodging sniper fire. Worst of all, some fucknut decided to build a ski jump ramp from the Command Center directly onto the runway just in case Maverick dodges Iceman on takeoff. And finally, the chow tent is in the middle of the boondocks. But hey, at least the M1-Abrahms is making a run unsupported at the enemy infantry.
What's the end game here?
I mean in the Ukraine playset.
The longer this war goes on, the greater the chances of contagion grow. Poland in particular is itching for a fight. They are in the process of mobilizing 200,000 men. Who knows what Romania is putting together. The propaganda is so thick that everyone smells blood in the water. The US and Europe think Russia can be beaten. As if the Russians, under attack from all the countries to her West will go down without falling back on her nuclear arsenal. She'll nuke from orbit and make sure.
The Poles and Romanians are already in Ukraine as mercs as are the US, UK and the rest operating the weaponry it would take six months to train the Ukrainians to use.
The only off ramp I see here is someone's got to make a deal.
The Russians have Mariupol and a land bridge to Crimea. Hard won. And there is no way they are giving it back. Putin can sell this as a victory to his Russian population and NATO can sell Ukraine as a war won because they stopped the 'evil' Russians crossing the Dnieper and capturing Kiev. In a mass media, 24hr news environment where everything is lies, it just might work. Ukraine keeps Odessa and her access to the Black Sea and Russia has 'liberated' its Russian speaking population. International inspectors come in and conduct elections in the captured provinces and all parties agree by the result. Nobody wins. Nobody loses. (Or gets annihilated). The wins and losses are accepted as a point of war. (Screencap this prediction).
If not, 2023 is going to be a very bad year.
The Russians are amassing troops and from my sources it is 300k+ and they are breaking out their top equipment. Maybe it's all a bluff. Half of this force is sitting in Belorussia. Either as an army in waiting, or merely an army whose only purpose is to exist as a possible attack vector; and as much as I hate to use a Trumpism, this force in Belarus could be 4d chess. Either way, the Russians are not going to stop. Just like NATO didn't stop in Iraq, took 20 years to stop fighting goat herders in Afghanistan, obliterated Libya and would have obliterated Syria if the Russians hadn't intervened because they wanted their base at Tartus.
If it's true what Ursula van der Leyen let slip that the Ukrainians have lost 100,000 men and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in a recent leaked memo said 35,000 men "are missing" (that conveniently means no widow's pension or payout to families). And just imagine the costs of rebuilding Ukraine not only now but after a Russian full multi-pronged assault?
The Ukrainians under Nuland and the CIA installed that Ukrainian government in 2014, shot protesters in the streets, broke the Minsk Agreements, and shelled Donbass for 8 years. There's only so long you can poke a bear.
But remember, who's the big winner in all of this. The US and Saudi Arabia and petrodollar stability. Germany, Europe's biggest exported by far and the power behind the value of the Euro watches as its industry implodes without cheap Russian energy. Was that the real target or just a bonus? Saudi Arabia sure wins. Now Europe buys gas at triple the price on floating Hiroshima's. Ten Iranian speedboats rush one of those with anti-ship missiles while it's docked in Hamburg and we're looking at the biggest non-nuclear explosion in history. And with all the black-market weaponry spewing out of Ukraine at the moment, this is not beyond the realm of possibility.
Why have a pipeline when you can have a ship 3 weeks slower with gas 5 times the cost
from a country that beheads women in public stadiums for the crime of adultery?
What if a side benefit of all this is the destruction of Europe, a "great reset" as our latest Dr Strangelove named his book. Are we all to be made poor carbon zero, massively surveilled and limited to electric cars and tear the Earth to shreds mining Lithium for batteries and hoping the wind blows or the sun shines so we can have a warm shower?
How the mighty have fallen.
Maybe that nuke mightn't be so bad after all. Because it's never going to be 2019 ever again.
That old aphorism of "truth being the first casualty of war" seems quaint in the modern-day environment post WWII. If only they could have imagined it back in 1943. Modern communications, 24hr news and the Internet. They could have thrown reality out the window. With this power, they could have made war anything they wanted it to be and convinced a population to kill. This has been done throughout history and this is where we are now. But on steroids.
The current enemy is Russia.
Maybe I could go hard with facts (and I will soon) but what I really want to know is why the US and EU have disrupted energy markets, destroyed Germany and the EU's natural gas supply all for a border dispute on Russia's border with Ukraine. It's nobody's business outside of the interested parties.
I made a prediction that Russia could not win this war in a month. But that they would win this war eventually. I stick by that. That was back in March when Western media was salivating that Russia had already failed. In my previous posts, I got most of it right and some of it wrong. Nobody got this war right. Because this war has changed from an initial border dispute between a minor power versus a larger power which Russia should have won in a month and did not and has now transformed into a conflict involving Western Civilization versus the rise of the East (China + vassal states) and the energy Russia can supply to it overland negating China's weakness.... sea power.
In simpler terms, a clash of civilizations is being forced.
Eurasia is a land power. But it is too huge to ever be a unit. Right?
The idea that China via Russia could build a high-speed Silk Road highway to Europe is terrifying to US strategic planning. If it were ever complete, if you could drive or take a high-speed train from Paris to Beijing, then the US becomes an island far from commerce. This is not the reason for the war in Ukraine, but it is a major geopolitical concern.
Ukraine is a battlefield.
It is the open ground where greater powers choose to do battle.
This war began as Russia v Ukraine.
And Russia believed they could win quickly. They drove South and reached the outskirts of Kiev. They drove East and captured Mariupol. That alone would be an armistice option. "Let's make a deal". And any logical deal that does not involve losing your own territory is a good deal. But the Ukrainians did not make it.
Why?
Because the Ukrainians are not running this war, NATO is. The orders, the money and the weapons are coming from the West. Because the West is afraid. The West is not afraid of the Russian military. The West is afraid of the challenge to their global hegemony via the petrodollar currency. And their governments are willing to blame their rampant inflation and failing economies on a border dispute in Eastern Europe that most citizens could not even point out on a map.
There are many reasons why the West has inflated its currency, but they are beyond the scope of this article.
With this background, let's talk war.
"War is a racket," said Smedley Butler and he was not wrong. What defies logic is that the United States has sent 100 billion dollars to keep Ukraine afloat while its own homeless population is in the millions and dollar inflation defies logic. For what reason? After invading Iraq on a fake premise and abandoning Afghanistan on a whim, there is no moral authority here; so, what is this obsession with a border dispute in Europe? It's hard to believe I wrote about it eight years ago.
It is a geopolitical move to prevent a symbiotic relationship between the Europeans and the Russians based on energy exchange (oil and gas) in exchange for access to the vast EU service economy. With the sabotage of both Nordstream I and II Baltic pipelines by 'mystery actors' (this stuff reads like a cheap spy novel where you already know the culprit after the first chapter).
So, the question remains... who is winning the Impossible War?
According to Western media, Ukraine is smashing the Russian Army. Since, I've got no dog in this fight, I'd like it to be true because I love the underdog in every sport or war. But unfortunately, this war is a disaster for Ukraine. NATO is running the war and that means satellite intelligence, logistic support, training of Ukrainian troops by foreign countries, mass conscription (fifth round), 18–50-year Olds and throwing these men into a fodder line. This is good for spotting weaknesses in the Russian line and successful attacks have been made south of Kharkov. But these successes were orchestrated to make your tax dollars feel like they are achieving something.
I hate maps of war. Especially while a war is ongoing. But I'll go with the Swiss Map. The Swiss are neutral right? They got away with that in WWII so why not now?
https://uawardata.com/
Odessa must be had.
I don't think the Russians will stop until they take Odessa. Not only is Odessa a city by the sea beloved of many Russians, but most of the people who live there despite the Ukrainian Government banning the Russian language in 2014 in the city and since the CIA coup under Nuland in 2014, it exists, despite the apartheid as a Russian city.
Militarily, it will be a difficult advance. But the Russians have mobilized 300,000 men. The Russian public wants this. Apart from the difficult advance, Odessa's capture will cut Ukraine off from the sea and render it a non-viable state. It must be had.
War is merciless but never impossible.
This just keeps getting more insane.
Addendum: I'll add to the following to clarify things. I am not a supporter of Russia or Ukraine. I pick no sides. I view what can be seen. War in its naked interest via Western media already includes enough uncritical propaganda for Ukraine. What is of interest is the geopolitics, motivations, resources and constraints of the prime movers fueling this clusterfuck.
Zelensky himself has thus far done a brilliant job in his presidential and ambassadorial role maintaining western political support, and the Ukranian army are legendary heroes for holding out against Russia with all of their clumsy bludgeoning firepower. Ukraine's savior was both NATO assistance and the halting of modern Russia's military reforms.
1) I believe Russia made a global INTEL mistake by invading with insufficient data. Who could have known back in February that the US would throw 80 billion dollars into Ukraine's defense and persuade its NATO allies (EU vassal states) to throw in $20 billion more.
2) I think it is clear now what Russia's initial gambit was. Throw 160,000 troops at the Ukrainians, drive a convoy at Kiev and hope that a minimal use of regular army troops could trigger a surrender achieved by a simple demonstration of force. This was a gross miscalculation and did not happen mainly because US war planners took over this war with the full capabilities of NATO satellite intelligence, weapons imports and raw cash injections which basically keeps the Ukrainian civil service and government alive and on a payroll.
3) The US government has gone off reservation. With the sabotaging of the undersea Nord Stream pipelines, it has made sure that there is no profit for the EU (and especially Germany) if they choose detente with Russia either through the realpolitik of dependence on Russian energy supply for their industry or when the riots start in Europe due to cost of living increases. We can already see this as European currencies nosedive while the dollar increases in value despite the fact that 40% of dollars in circulation were printed in the last two years.
4) The game is more now dangerous than ever. With Russia changing its stance to a war footing and the US and its EU vassal states (which Putin correctly pointed out in his speech; the EU is a vassal state of the US since the Post WWII Marshall Plan) persisting in attritional type warfare using the men of Ukraine as pawns in a proxy war versus Russia, supplied and armed and trained by NATO, we are entering new territory.
5) Conclusion: For the first time since the post war Bretton Woods accord, the US is not being viewed as a rational actor by those who should (China, India, Malaysia, SE Asia). Its actions scream of desperation and maintaining dollar reserve status. Also, Russia has not thought out its actions and seriously underestimated the West's response. The price of this miscalculation will echo down the decades. Russia has now permanently married itself to the East and will be gobbled up for its energy by China. It's passing grade in the war has not helped it. The EU is not a serious entity. It's encroaching bureaucracy, insane energy policies and embrace of globalism and mass emigration has weakened it.
So here we are. Peace seems impossible. The New Cold War I predicted in 2019 is in full effect. And I take no pleasure in this.
Russia on Mexico's border would be unacceptable. When the Warsaw Pact tried it in Cuba, it almost led to a nuclear war (Plan A) below.
This war is entering a new phase.
Russiareally wants to avoid the bloody, high casualty infrastructure destruction type of warfare that would make Ukraine a post war rubble pile failed state (almost as bad as having NATO on your border). Instead, the invasion seeks to "reshape" the country to Russia's liking, getting rid of the Nazi militias, inflicting as little civilian casualties as possible (hence the ceasefires and opening of humanitarian corridors). Putin has lost the war perceptually in the West but he must have been prepared for the massive 24/7 propaganda campaign run against him in Western media him before he invaded; just like the one ran against him when Putin bailed out Assad in Syria. Only, this time far bigger and more hysterical.
Militarily, the war is going as Russia planned. It is a shame that NATO countries are sending weapons to Ukraine urging them to fight a war they cannot win and by fighting can only prolong it and lead to more death and destruction. Every Javelin anti-tank shoulder mounted weapon NATO ship to Ukraine, the further it increases the likelihood of prolonged battle and civilian casualties in a military war that cannot be won. It seems the Russians may be forced, as a Roman general once said, "To create a desert and call it peace".
This is definitely something Putin does not want and will try everything to avoid. Russia ultimately would like to negotiate a peace with a government ideally recognized by the rest of the world and you can't do that if the country is in ruins or you've murdered millions of civilians. Hence, the opening of humanitarian corridors from every besieged city.
However, there is the lingering question, and it's hard for me to even comprehend this but it is being asked, which is, does this thing go nuclear? A 2019 Princeton University simulation on the escalation to nuclear war called Plan A, chillingly started out as conflict in Eastern Europe. And with the hysteria being whipped up in the Western media and talks of a Western no fly zone even being discussed, one wonders if the post Covid public are being battered to demand something like this from a deranged media apparatus, which is insane unless you love dying in nuclear fire.
This will not happen since the military part of the war is winding down.
One large area of discussion in Western media is why it is taking so long for the Russians to capture Kiev or create a cauldron/total encirclement of the Ukrainian forces in Donbass. Let's take a look at the numbers. I don't see the slowness Western media is championing as proof that Russia is losing this war or even suffering unexpected losses.
By the numbers...
Russia has allegedly committed 234,000 ground troops versus Ukraine's 125,000 troops. Russia has allegedly amassed 1,200 tanks of various types, mainly T-72s and T-90s in unknown proportions. And 1500 APCs and uncountable numbers of Ural supply trucks. Against all this, Ukraine fields 620 T-64s, 100TBM Bulat's, 133 T-72s (all of it old Warsaw pact equipment) which is not going to cut it as this conflict resolves. Ukraine's air force was wiped out in the first 48 hrs.
Also, remember, Ukraine in area is 233,000 square miles. In Gulf War II, it took the US and its coalition partners 41 days to capture Iraq (a country of 169,000 square miles) and six days to capture Baghdad against far lesser trained troops and an obsolete army with no NATO supplied state-of-the-art ATGMs or Stinger AA missiles. And neither were the Iraqis being supplied with satellite data as I'm sure NATO is providing the Ukrainian high command. And neither did the coalition care so much about civilian casualties. So, we could only possibly call the Russian advance slow if Ukraine hasn't surrendered by sometime in mid-April.
The Russians have used their older equipment first as a kind of cannon fodder to probe Ukrainian positions and hardpoints with the Ukrainians claiming outrageous Russian losses, like 5000 Russian troops killed. This just does not pass the smell test. For comparison, on D-Day on June 6th,1944 to 25 days later, when the Allies had fought their way off those bloody Normandy beaches and driven inland in horrible bocage country ideal for German defenders, the Allies lost a total of 2,811 men. How the Russians could have lost twice that many in one third of that time simply cannot be true. It would be impossible to hide losses of that scale in an era of camera phones and satellite monitoring.
Actual Russian losses are probably high by Western standards, but Russia always fights its wars with a high threshold for losses that would make Western populations riot. That was one lesson the US took away from Vietnam and rectified in Gulf War I and II.
In an era of camera phones, one mutilated soldier posted on the Internet can go viral and sway an entire country's thirst for war. Add a few photos of dead babies on 24hrs news channels and you can turn a sizeable portion of your population into attack dogs baying for "justice". War is a fickle and dangerous thing. The first casualty is truth. The second casualty is reason.
Remember the picture on the below left? That boy is Omran Daqneesh, who appeared on the front page of every Western newspaper in 2016 supposedly pulled from the rubble of a Russian air strike in Syria. It allowed NATO to launch 200 cruise missiles at Syria and Assad. Turns out, the entire thing was staged, the dust and blood were all fake and there he is fine with his dad in 2017 explaining how the Syrian "rebels" forced him to do it.
Media manipulation is disgusting and it gets people killed. It's a psy-op on one's own citizens.
Russia has already lost the media war in Western countries in a huge way. But that is more testimony to the overwhelming power of mass media and its manipulation of the average man on the street in the West. Russia is holding its own in China and India. Both countries abstained to condemn the Russian attack at the UN Security Council. They want Russian oil and gas and have the luxury of sitting back and watching Europe implode and wait for the post war Russians to come ready to make cheap new energy deals with them.
Russia knew the cost of taking Ukraine in advance. The US probably did too. You've got to give US intelligence credit when they predicted the attack in the weeks before. Biden may be an empty suit but the vast web of entrenched power behind him (no matter who they push in front of the cameras) was right. The US has no particular interest in fighting this war besides its weakening of Russia and its separation from Europe. A united Eurasia is always a danger to US hegemony in the West and increasing economic ties with Russia were mutually beneficial for Europe.
This war has now sunk the Nordstream II energy pipeline and condemned the Europeans to import the 25% of its oil and 40% of its natural gas it had been buying from Russia. Now that must come by sea from the lovely head chopping off misogynist Arabian Sheiks at a higher price and, crucially, be paid for in dollars which suits the US just fine. The US is okay with sitting back, watching the carnage and supplying some weaponry so the whole macabre show can go on longer.
Russia has adapted its military strategy on the fly. The opening of the humanitarian corridors is another wise move. Remember, here is a map of the languages spoken in Ukraine.
Notice anything?
Remarkable isn't it, how closely this map matches up with the territory in Ukraine almost now captured by the Russians? As we know Russia has conducted few major airstrikes on Kiev. They could easily have destroyed the government buildings were Zelensky is supposedly holed up like the way the US did in Iraq in 2003 when it shock-and-awed all of Saddam Hussein's palaces, blew up all power generation, cut off communications and squashed the city into darkness.
Not so in Kiev. Nope, the lights are still on, you can still walk to the supermarket and buy bread; that's if you can avoid the fighting gangster mobs who Zelensky handed thousands of AK rifles to who now seem more intent on using them to settle internecine old scores amongst each other than waste ammo using them to fight Russians.
The humanitarian corridor and evacuation at Mariupol is being hampered by the Ukrainian Neo Nazi Azov divisions who need the 95% Russian speaking population there as human shields in case the Russians resort to artillery or bombing. These groups are funded by shady foreign money and ex oligarchs, still pissed at Putin for ending their asset stripping of the Soviet Union after its fall and lack of leadership under permanently inebriated Yeltsin during the 1990s.
Ukrainian Azov Division. A lovely group of Nazis according to Western Media.
Ironically, it was NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999 which ultimately brought Putin to power. The Russian people had had just about enough of Western style "democracy" by then and Putin stepped in and was elected soon after. Sure, I'm not going to say Putin is a saint; very far from it. But neither is George Bush the Younger or Tony Blair who killed or starved a million Iraqi's and they're free men who lied their countries into a war. One now paints bad portraits on his ranch, the other made a few hundred million in backroom deals and 'speaking fees' and regularly appears on TV pushing the globalist agenda. Where were the screaming crowds or calls for assassinations of Western leaders when NATO did this to Belgrade in 1999?
Belgrade 1999. Not a holiday destination.
When the West starts a war, it's sex.
When Russia does it, it's rape.
The Russian strategy of humanitarian corridors has multiple purposes beyond the one's already stated. It does allow the Russians to consolidate its logistics issues. But more importantly, Russia want's to de-Nazify the hard core Neo Nazi groups sprinkled around the country. The Ukrainian air force has been wiped out, their missile systems are neutralized and the remaining ground troops are scattered and entrenched in cities where removing them will be impossible without massive civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
Allowing these large humanitarian convoys from all major cities means that the Russians consider the major tactical part of this war over, with fierce mopping up operations as the only task left. If the Ukrainians had any credible military command and control structure left, why not knock out that 40-mile-long convoy of sitting duck Russian fuel, food and ammunition trucks north of Kiev? The reason is because they can't. To the extent the Ukrainian's have a strategy, I guess it is to drag the war on for as long as possible while hoping to get other countries involved.
The Russian's strategy will remain much the same. I would imagine they will surround the cities, sit in Forward Operating Bases in artillery range of cities, allow civilians to leave hoping that the Ukrainian military and Azov divisions leave for the West of Ukraine which is primarily Ukrainian speaking, has not been attacked and can be a buffer zone of sorts. This is the same strategy the Russians used in Syria, using the Syrian Army to surround cities but not storm them allowing ISIS to trickle out to the north around Idlib province where they have more or less wilted or at least been isolated and contained. By no means am I saying this plan will work or saying I'm sure this is even the Russian plan, but it is how the Russians handled things in Syria and it worked there. Either way, the main country v country part of this war is over. The Russians have won militarily however long the fighting drags on.
It's ugly but there's no turning back at this point.
In the medium to long term, I would imagine a slow civilian return to their homes and some kind of internationally observed election process or, if this fails, a possible division of the country with Russian annexation of the Black Sea coast cities and all territory east of the Dnieper and Kiev. The Ukrainians may have to settle for the former Polish city of Lviv as a capital of "New Ukraine". (Of course, this is pure speculation on my part). The Russians may just take it all.
Ugly, messy and horrific but go ahead and name a "nice war".
As far as winners go, well it certainly isn't Russia in the short term, and it certainly isn't Ukraine. Russia will win militarily but Russian citizens will suffer from sanctions for the foreseeable future. Will this weaken Putin's control? That we cannot yet know. It will be interesting to see if business with China can make up shortfalls in consumer goods and banking and help Putin maintain public support as they weather the Western blockade.
Russia will now switch all of its diplomatic relations to the East, the new emerging centers of global finance, growth, manufacturing and open new pipelines for it's oil and gas to India and China and Asia in a relationship which could be mutually beneficial; Russian oil can solve China's huge weakness, it's reliance on energy imports via sea lanes which the US Blue Water Navy can blockade at any time.
Expect more pipelines East in the coming years.
The US wins the war in the short term but they will have to consider fracking and going energy independent again in the medium term to control their own energy prices and their inflationary problems. An Iran nuclear deal, could allow Iranian oil back on world markets which would make up shortfalls. As would sanctioned Venezuelan oil. There are only so many countries you can sanction and not destroy yourself in the process.
Europe, on the other hand, suffers another huge refugee crisis it cannot afford, massive energy inflation which results in cost-of-living expenses in an EU block already suffering vast Covid disruptions, massive pension obligations, and growing public dissatisfaction even before this war started. The ECB is not in a healthy position. Brexit and the yellow vest movement in France have shown that an EU dominated by Germany is unstable. Couple that with dissatisfaction and lower standards of living in countries like Spain, Italy and Greece and Europe will take a further blow by this war.
If you've been watching this conflict through the eyes of Western media, you would be forgiven for thinking that the plucky Ukrainian Army was holding its own or even winning this war and that the Russian Army was getting owned, making little progress or surprised at the level of resistance. I've got no dog in this fight except the truth itself; not something in high demand these days but still worth mentioning. For what it's worth and due to the Fog of War, media frenzy, hyperbole, fake footage, footage from years ago and footage from the ARMA 3 PC war simulator game, I agree it's all bad. It's just impossible for the average citizen to know what's really happening in the world or in the war.
I will try here to paint a picture of what an invasion of a country the size of Ukraine should look like, seems to look like and what we can infer through the fog because in truth, most Ukrainians in Ukraine don't even know the condition of this war/invasion once they turn off their TV.
Before I start, there are some very striking observations to be had from watching footage that can at least be verified and that is that the Russians seem to be using a lot of their older equipment in their initial attack. I mean we're talking T-72s both A and B (which at best is 1980s tech), most upgraded with add on reactive armor, side and rear mounter cages (to defeat shaped charged shells) and makeshift tank turret roof armor consisting of cages covered in sandbags to possibly defeat the Javelin anti-tank missile every NATO country seems to be sending to Ukraine. One thing is for sure, the Russians are holding their elite divisions in reserve. It seems in the initial attack; they're using up their vast collection of Cold War machinery which was gathering rust and not viable on the export market anymore. (Except maybe in Syria where the T-72's low-tech diesel engines make them remarkably easy to repair in the field for anyone useful with a wrench). But that's a whole other story
Looks like near encirclement of the main Ukrainian army facing Donbass and Russian probing forces to the North and West of Kiev.
1) The Kiev Attack. Russian forces are reported to be in control of the main highway North from Kiev and are conducting probing and reconnaissance attacks to the west to attempt to seal off the Western highway. Reports of Ukrainian civilians at the border of Poland (which are certain and measurable) indicate a 20-42 hour waiting time to be processed to cross the border for people in cars, and 12-18 hours for people on foot). That's certainly horrible and a humanitarian tragedy but there are no nice military invasions. Russian forces did enter Kiev on the Western bank of the Dnieper but retreated. (Obviously a probing attack to reveal local concentrations of Ukrainian Army hardpoints).
Remember, the Russians have spy satellites over the entire theater as do the US who are undoubtedly feeding this information to the Ukrainian high command, but its usefulness is peripheral for the defender. There is a curfew in Kiev which means nobody on the streets, but the Russians have not cut off power, water or even Internet to the city which they could easily do via bombing. It is quite clear that they have no interest in destroying the city. In fact, five days in, I can't remember such a large war with such a minimal civilian body count. When the Western Powers invaded Iraq, they began bombing Baghdad on the first night in a "shock and awe" campaign that killed one million people when it was all over. Ultimately, the Russians will be waiting for the rapidly advancing Crimean force from the South and the North Westerly force via Chernihiv to complete the encirclement of the city. This is probably hours away. Their plan is a peaceful surrender of Ukraine via gun to Zelensky's head which will look good in the modern-day PR/social media war.
2) The Northeast Axis. The Russians here invaded on a broad front with the ultimate aim of capturing Kharkov, the second most populated city in Ukraine, the site of a legendary battle via Germany in WWII and mostly a Russian speaking city (although speaking Russian is officially banned in Ukraine by the central government as of the coup in 2014). Kharkov has been surrounded and Russian troops have reached the city center, have met fierce resistance and retreated. Kharkov it seems will just have to remain surrounded to release the main Russian forces to advance on Kiev. Taking Kharkov by military force, leveling the city with artillery is not the Russian goal. The Russians are selling this invasion to their own people as not a Slav-on-Slav war. And with 73% of Russians supporting the invasion (who knows if such stats are true) would it matter anyway? One million people demonstrated in London against the Iraq War and the people in power took no notice. And that was in a democracy which Russia certainly is not.
Ukrainian Army reports have confirmed that the Russian 1st Guard Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army make up the bulk of the Northeast attack and are moving westward toward Kiev. Ukrainian Army defenders did capture elements of the Russian 2nd Tank Division and 138th Motor Rifle Brigade during the probing attack into Kharkov. For now, I see the Russians content to lay siege and prevent Ukrainian Army units in Kharkov from threatening the flank or rear on the main thrust on Kiev.
When will we learn?
3) Donbass Axis: This isn't complicated. The Russians are content to pin Ukrainian forces here without attacking the Ukrainian well-fortified multi echeloned defense system here. The Russians are using their well supplied battle-hardened separatist militia to keep pressure here while the Russian Army attempts to encircle them from the North and South. Again, the sheer logistics of this encirclement is probably causing the Russians problems due to logistics, supply and fuel. I would not expect anything less. Rome did not fall in a day. Western media are making this out to be some kind of failure. The military part of this attack will take some time.
4) Crimea Axis: The attack from the South is undoubtably the Russian's most successful in terms of territory quickly gained. They encountered a thin line of resistance and then broke through into open ground following the Dnieper North and East and bridging it to the West but not seeming particularly interested in moving north on the west side of the great river. West of the Dnieper of course is where Ukrainian is spoken along with Polish and Bulgarian. Not friendly country. That is not to say that anywhere in Ukraine is necessarily friendly country outside of Donetsk and Luhansk but there are shades of grey and nuance that media tends to ignore.
A break off force of mechanized infantry is rapidly advancing and will capture or has captured Mariupol (linking Crimea with the Russian mainland via land bridge). Also, Russian forces opened the canal the Ukrainians had blocked to deny Crimea fresh water after the Russian annexation in 2014 negating the desalination plant that was hurriedly built and grossly inefficient to provide Crimeans with drinking water.
The main force will push north and attempt to finish the complete the encirclement of Kiev from the south. The Russians are obviously hoping for a surrender once this is completed. If the Ukrainians refuse, then war just becomes diplomacy by other means.
5) Belarus Attack: The Russians have amassed a force in Belarus which is directly north of Western Ukraine. This force would drive south and likely be used to cut off shipments of arms and supplies through Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. It would also attack the city of Lviv with little restraint if surrender does not come in the next two weeks.
Things to note as you watch or read Western media is that the Russians have released only a fraction of their conventional forces to achieve the gains they have made. The civilian body count is miniscule in an invasion of this magnitude.
Finally, I would like to address the West's hysterical response. Obviously, there would be sanctions. But Russia has been sanctioned since the Crimean Annexation, so they are used to it. But now, the US and the Europeans (under pressure from the US) has attacked the Russian Central Bank, seizing all Russian assets and reserves in foreign banks in Western countries. In the modern world and global economy, this is about as far as you can go without using military force. Even Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT interbank payment system can be weathered. But this action by the Biden administration borders on hysteria. Even the US Federal Reserve advised the White House not to do it.
Why?
Because with the backing of China, Russia can probably weather it and the ongoing attack on the Russian Ruble which means it'll be worth pennies versus the dollar this week doesn't mean much for the average Russian. Russia is self-sufficient in oil and gas and food. Sure, the average Russian won't be able to holiday in Ibiza, but I hear Crimea has sun baked beaches in the summer. Western hysteria is throwing the kitchen sink diplomacy; this is betting your house on a two pair in poker. The West has already done this to Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea etc but never to a G20 country. It's new territory. Russia has already cut off all flights over its mainland by Western airlines in response but not Asian or Indian airlines.
This kills European airlines.
The biggest loser (apart from Ukraine) in all of this is the EU and especially Germany. The Nordstream II gas pipeline is gone as are all pipelines of natural gas through Ukraine to the EU (40% of which comes from Russia) and 25% of the EU's oil from Russia just went bust. In the massive inflationary environment post Covid, this war was played shrewdly but riskily by Putin as NATO crept up to his border. He attacked now or never. History will tell if it was a good move on the grand chessboard.
The danger of the monetary attack on Russia is the signal it sends out to countries like China, Brazil and even India. "What if I don't play ball, can the West kill my economy?" That is why the Wall Street Bankers advised against this financial attack because it encourages the creation of a non-dollar-based world economy. It breaks the Bretton Woods post WWII neoliberal/globalist agreement.
What the bankers fear is that such action encourages a parallel system of payments without the dollar. China will gladly buy Russian oil and gas. So will others. Sanctions have not crippled Iran; in fact, they've made the population rally around its dysfunctional theocratic government.
A lot of people have asked me, "will China attack Taiwan now?" and I'll give a tentative no. Why would they? They are the biggest winners of this war by far. The EU are commiting suicide for ideology (wouldn't be the first time) killing their economy to kill Russia's, the US has revealed itself as a paper tiger, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and total failure in Iraq being the most obvious examples but also its internal strife, riots, wealth inequality and rule by oligarchs and corporations.
In all war games, the best move is not to play right? But as of this writing, the best outcome is peace talks as the Ukrainians realize they have no stack left at the poker table and make a deal, giving up Eastern Russian speaking Ukraine and an accord not to join NATO in exchange for non-total annihilation. There are talks scheduled in Belarus hours after this writing. The fate of at least 50,000 military men surrounded in the Donbass pocket rests on the deliberations of modern diplomats who are a bureaucrat gang that has never seen or experienced war. The President of Ukraine is a former standup comedian. I wish I was joking.
The West and NATO have played all their cards. To a serious extent, the Russians have too.
And like the casino the world has become, nobody knows where the chips will fall.
