Sunday, January 29, 2023

NATO v Russia: WWIII Part II. Tactical Battlefield 15 kiloton nukes.



   In my last post over New Years', I honestly tried to make a case that this war must end, a peace deal must be had or the danger of contagion and escalation is too great to allow this war to continue. Guess what, nobody read it. A border dispute between two neighboring countries has engulfed the planet, drawn factions, split alliances and is on its way to places I can't imagine. I became politically aware in the late '80s and even I knew as a kid that the Berlin Wall crumbling was something. I grew up in a time where nukes were a very real and ever present possibility. And today, the chances of such a war are higher than ever and the kids don't care. Because they don't know. So, since a call for peace gets me nowhere, let me show you war.

   For those of you with a distaste for horror, close this article now because I'm going to show some sick shit just to know what your taxes are paying for. If peace doesn't sell, then at least know what you are buying.

   First off, let's analyze the war. 

   Let me show you your death.

    Or your children's death. These are the weapons in play...


   Russia should have won it in six months. The feint toward Kiev from the north was supposed to induce a surrender. The other attacks from Sumy, south of Kharkov, north from Crimea and the main armored thrust to the vital rail hub at Mariupol was supposed to overwhelm the Ukrainians. A peace deal then would have ended it. Donbass and Luhansk go to Russia since that's what the people who live there want. Bring in the UN and hold a vote. Ukraine cannot join NATO would be Russia's only stipulation because such a measure puts short range nukes within 200 miles of Moscow. And allows NATO to put bases miles from Moscow which are simply untenable and unfair after the tacit post war agreement that was made by Clinton after the collapse of the Soviet Union; NATO would not encroach on former territories and place once governed by the Soviets. (Cuban missile crisis all over again). In fact, what need of NATO in 1991 since the Warsaw Pact had dissolved? It's whole reason for being had evaporated. If this take makes me a Russian shill go make a case in the comments. 

   Power once accumulated never dissolves by itself. (NATO) It only gets destroyed by a greater power.

   Yes, the Russians have nukes but so do the US and the idea was lets work together to stop their proliferation and reduce our stockpiles. That was a fair deal in 1997. We we're on the cusp of a new age. Each country-built modules for the International Space Station and it all worked. And look where we are now? Closer to nuclear war than in all of history. Check the Doomsday Clock. Think about that? How did humanity degrade intellectually and morally and let that happen?


   But that's a philosophical question right?

   I'm here to talk raw war and what's coming will come while you sleep unless something drastically changes.

    The West has gone from sending money, taxpayer money, most of it laundered back to US defense contractors (through Ukrainian banks) and back to US political campaigns to keep the extraction of the work and daily grind of the US and European people as a source of  income that can be skimmed and the use of it in the building of a massive security and surveillance state. The rest is being sold off as soon as if arrives in Lviv. Shoulder mounted missiles that can shoot down  a civilian airliner are being sold on the Dark Web as as I type. All of them supplied to Ukraine officials via the US and EU. Assange is still in jail for saying exactly this. With proof.


Now swap Afghanistan for Ukraine. It's a money laundering operation.

  "The war is not meant to be won. It is meant to be continuous. The essential act of modern warfare is the destruction of the produce of human labor. A hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. In principle, the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects, and its object is not victory over Russia or China, but to keep the very structure of society intact."

    With NATO pushing this war beyond what is necessary or logical, sending tanks, artillery, satellite intelligence, targeting information, advanced missiles, advanced jamming tech, high tech radar; at what point does Russia, whose population now see this war, for good or ill, as an existential war for survival, accept a loss?

   Let me give you a battlefield example.

   Let's take the city of Bakhmut. It's a major transport hub with what used to have 70k people living in it. It's the administrative capital of a an Oblast(State) in Donbass.. The Ukrainians have poured at best reckoning 50k troops into defending it. It's a built up area so a nightmare for the Russians to clear building by building without incurring terrible losses against defenders in prepared positions.

In the interest of neutrality, the red  circle shows what the Russians captured last week. Bakhmut, is in danger of encirclement. I rarely show maps on this blog because due to the fog of war, I believe both sides are lying but people I know and trust say it's true.



   Bakhmut is now "operationally surrounded". That means the Russians have the town of Soledar to the North (circled), Wagner forces are in possession of the road and rail from the South West and the only road in from larger towns to the East like Kramatorsk which is a conurbation ( of over 200k people mostly evacuated) along with a string of other towns in token amounts that form a defensive line 40 miles to Bakhmut's rear. There are by NATO estimates 50,00 Ukrainian, Polish, mercenary troops in Bakhmut. That road from Kramatorsk is useless because even though the Russians do not hold it, they can lay down artillery and destroy anything that attempts to move along that road. So Bakhmut is effectively caught in what the Russians call a cauldron and western military call surrounded in effect..

   So here's your horror story.

    The Ukrainians do not surrender. They sit on half rations and wait from a NATO armored brigade to break through and rescue 50,000 Ukrainian troops from a otherwise Russian war winning scenario.

   Is it possible?

    I don't think so. But if the Russians saw that a hard fought war winning end to fighting in Donbass and if foreign forces were rescued by a NATO armored division, would not the temptation be to launch a battlefield small 15 kiloton yield nuke into Bakhmut and airburst it over the town hall and at least fry half the the enemy? After all, the object of war is to win. And since Russia is a a country if 130 million people under attack now by NATO, a billion people, why would they not feel justified in using such a weapon? I am not saying they would be right, I'm saying they could be pushed into a corner where they say, if we go down, then you go down. It is not a moral argument. It is an emotional one. If I were to list the amount of battles fought and lost on emotion, I think I could go 40%

    This is the danger the world is playing with. Worse, a few people are playing with.

 
This was in the 1950s. Just imagine what they have now. Limited, battlefield nuclear ordinance. Airburst, minimal fallout, follow up attack by armored vehicles. It's coming while you sleep and worry about the gas bill and sausages.



   WWIII is in full effect. Not tomorrow. Not yesterday. Now.

    It's just the average person doesn't even know it yet beyond the cost of heating his home, eggs are expensive and good luck finding a steak you can afford. I don't know what to say but the people in charge lied to you about a bug no more dangerous than the flu and they are lying to you now. Ukraine could surrender in the morning and keep three quarters of its land area. A deal could be made. But it cannot be allowed.

   The West's goal is to attrite Russia because of her vast raw material wealth. Her existence has become too dangerous. Her alliance with China is even more terrifying. This has all been known for a decade. It's a belt and road initiative the US has no answer for. The danger is in the unity of the Eurasian landmass that puts the US an island an isolated block in the sea.




  But now we are on the edge of a hot war.

  And very few, least of all the politicians providing these weapons, know the heat of the fire they are playing with. 







    If we are to die in a war like this, then let us deserve it.

    But not like this. Not in our name. Otherwise, let's stop it.  





    
   This war is over. 

   NATO can throw in some vehicles to prolong it a few months. But Ukraine is done. The only question left is how much does Russia want? Donbass will crush the Ukrainian Army. That's already happening.

   In my opinion, the Russian capture of Odessa would destroy Ukraine forever. No access to the sea, I believe the Russians will call a halt here and take the win. They will leave Kiev to the Europeans, a black hole of corruption, money laundering and theft. Let them pour billions into keeping it running.

  Meanwhile, the Russians will relax on the beach and get there sunburn from the sun or the sun NATO fission detonates out of frustration

  Either way, this is the most bloody and brutal war since Korea.

  It affects us all and leaves us all, whether we are involed directly or tacitly; we are accepting this human meat grinder live on our TV/whatever media; we are all involved as human beings no matter where we live and if we like it or not.

  In many quiet ways, we all have blood on our hands.

 

232 comments:

  1. Wartard swinging for the fences here. Is it really this fucking bad? Surely Mutually Assured Destruction saves us?

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    1. Lol so fucking bad. “Who needs NATO” during an active invasion of a sovereign nation by Russia. Yeah, he’s officially a shill

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  2. The whole idea is limited nuclear weapons. Weapons smaller than the Hiroshima bomb. Weapons that are designed for area denial, melt people within a kilometer of impact, blind those 2km and render severe burns and on out to a 5km radius. Air burst this, and you will have minimal fallout and radiation and anyone underneath that blast is out of action via burns or blindness. It's evil but it's localized and it's launched by artillery. But worst of all, there are people on both sides of this war considering the use of such weapons. Where the fuck is Bono and U2. They wrote The Unforgettable Fire. But it doesn't apply any more because the're billionaires and Russia is bad now.

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  3. How the fock isRussia under attack by NATO. Man you can't be serious

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    1. How about the armored division NATO is sending? 31 Abrams, 17 Leopard 2s, 14 Challenger IIs, 50 Marder APCs, 100 Brandley APCS, 300,000 artillery 155mm shells from Israel's arsenal. What fucking planet do you shills live on? You are either ignorant or not paying attention.

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    2. But Ukraine does not want to "surrender and keep three quarters of it". They want all of it, including Crimea, and have demonstrated their willingness to fight and die for it.

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    3. Okay, so lets torch the Earth and all die in a fireball for one the the most corrupt countries on Earth. You do realize they are the singular producer of child pornography in Europe right?

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    4. War Tard, your talking utter drivel. Where the fuck is Bono and U2 you ask! What the fuck does it matter! You've lost the plot.

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    5. Well U2 got famous in the US from a song called The Unforgettable Fire. It was about nuclear war. Now that we are closer to nuclear war than ever, as War Tard points out, they have nothing to say. They are the elite now..

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  4. You said it mate. You pulled no punches here. This is exactly what everybody feels about this bullshit war. I'm sick of this Zelensky guy. He either fired, murdered via helicopter or purged his top aids. He's Montana at the end of Scarface. Drug addicted, alone, firing or killing his ministers. NATO can't prop this fool up anymore. If Zelensky's own people don't put a bulletin in him then the CIA will.

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    1. Zelensky has a few weeks left. He's fired or killed his whole staff. I saw that interview with him the other night and that guy is perma drunk but is snorting enough cocaine to make it seem good for interviews. The whole thing is about to collapse.

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    2. How’s this shaping up?

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  5. >Russia is a a country (...) under attack now by NATO
    there is a very simple solution for that, Russia withdraws from Ukraine territory and they are no longer under attack

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    1. You skipped the intro bro.

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    2. Russia withdrew from Germany. Russia withdrew from Poland. Russia left the Baltic states. What did these withdrawals get Russia? Certainly not security. NATO will only be satisfied when there is a puppet regime in Moscow taking orders from the State Department.

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    3. Have you ever thought of doing a little history mate? I'm no fan of Russkis but even I can see they were being surrounded. You didn't answer what I thought was WTs best question in the whole article. Why did NATO not just disappear by 1991. Their whole reason for being was gone and yet here they are about to start WWIIII over a border dispute on Russia's backdoor.
      WT I sometimes wonder why you even bother trying to explain things to idiots.
      Love from Brisbane.

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    4. >Certainly not security.

      are you for real? whos fault is that? Russia trying to rebuild soviet union or, for example, Baltic states that were being raped for 50 years of Soviet occupation and were not stupid enough to believe that just because country changed its name it is now a good and peaceful neighbor

      its the same naive and out of touch thinking like the line from main article
      " In fact, what need of NATO in 1991 since the Warsaw Pact had dissolved?"

      because soviet union under different name is the same aggressor and bully in the region, nothing has changed except the size and some borders

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    5. >Have you ever thought of doing a little history mate?
      >Why did NATO not just disappear by 1991. Their whole reason for being was gone

      another one lol, you are posting from Australia and trying to teach history?

      my personal life was affected by soviet occupation
      i had soviet division stationed 10km away from my home, there are still russian nukes aimed here just 300km away
      members of my family were forced to life in exile after ww2 or they would be arrested and executed
      my grandad lost family business and home my father was arrested and you are really asking a question why i have trust issues with literally the same people that invaded in 1920, in 1939, occupied and oppressed my country for 45 years in 1945??
      noting has changed when soviet union collapsed, the same people were in charge just under a slightly different banner
      and its not even just people in charge, you can see the same soviet era mentality in majority of Russian citizens
      Tho to be fair, they were, as a nation, skullfucked for centuries first by tsars and then by communists which were "totally different we promise" so its not like they even had a chance to think differently in last 10+ generations

      why would NATO disappear if soviet union is still there, just under different name?
      why would any country previously occupied directly or indirectly by soviet union trust "new" Russia?
      why wouldn't they want an actual security from country that oppressed them for 50 or so years?

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    6. Your personal life was affected so lets all have a cry and launch the nukes and end humanity. Why the fuck do you entertain these people Wartard?

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    7. i have a policy of not deleting comments in the interest of free speech and all that stuff that used to exist 10 years ago. Still though, this is fucking entertaining. I believe I laid out a fair assessment. In 14 years of doing this blog thing, I've never seen such rhetoric and I've never got death threats in my email or death threats I've had to delete here. This war really is a tipping point in human sanity.

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    8. Where did I said that?

      I'm explaining to you why people who were actually affected by soviet and then Russian politics are not so keen on making any deal with them and why NATO was/is definitely needed after soviet union collapse

      Also, should we let Russia do whatever the fuck they want, let them occupy baltics again etc just because they have nukes?

      What kind of logic is that?

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    9. >That's what you're doing but now it's cold and who are you going to blame?

      But its not? I literally did not have to turn my heating yet and gas prices are below pre war levels

      Blowing up nord stream was a miracle for Poland, we were against construction since the beginning
      Even if it would cost more to become independent of Russian resources it is 100% worth it in the long run

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  6. Oh, we have a Pole here. Poles will never be at peace with Russia. Never have, never will.

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  7. Poles along with Churchill started WWII. Why didn't they just give Danzig back? It was a German city for 1000 years. Why the did the UK not declare war on Russia at the same time as Germany? The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact implicated both countries in dividing Poland? Why, if the UK cared so much for Polish sovereignty, didn't they declare war on Russia? Because it's all lies and the winners write history.

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    1. Well, the post World War I settlement was certainly a powder keg that was bound to explode one way or another, but Polish-Russian animosity goes way back before then, at least to the Russian suppression of Warsaw uprising in 1863 (you could go back further but who cares). The point is that asking Poles about Russia/Ukraine is like asking Greeks about Turkey/Cyprus. Don't expect a dispassionate response. The wounds are too deep.

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    2. That makes sense. I think we're all equally fucked.

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    3. "Poles along with Churchill started WWII. Why didn't they just give Danzig back? It was a German city for 1000 years."

      you have to be trolling, this is just not true
      it was founded as polish city and remained polish for the most part of 8 centuries since its founding until partition of Poland in 1800s when well there was no more Poland to which it could belong to
      in interwar period it was neutral city so what exactly Poland was supposed to give back?
      and how exactly Poland started ww2? after the invasion of Poland "nothing" happened until Germany attacked again, if all they wanted was Danzig why invade Norway or France or USSR?

      "Why the did the UK not declare war on Russia at the same time as Germany? The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact implicated both countries in dividing Poland?"

      because UK-Polish pact said noting about any help in case of invasion from anyone but Nazi Germany
      UK simply didn't have to do anything, and given that Germany and Soviet Union spend half a decade before the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact denouncing each other anyone with half a brain knew that it was just a matter of time before they turn on each other again (which didnt even took 2 years)
      Given the History of UK and Germany it also made a lot more sense to focus on victory over them even at the cost of Poland

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  8. The main asset in wars since ever is the communication between high ranking commanders from both sides. This happens much more than we know, and Putin can of course be sidelined. Who knows, this may have happened already and leadership position changes may have occured within the russian military due to a denial to follow up a nuclear attack order by the russian president.

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    1. At least Putin is well dressed , hasn't had 80% of his staff fired or died in mysterious helicopter crashes and banned all political parties in the government except his own. Zelensky snorts so much coke per day he can't even keep it together for the daily media cycle. His wife wearing Prada at Davos last week says it all. They are fucking muppets, and the world is sick of them. They've got a new viila in Italy waiting for them once Ukraine runs out of men to die for them. And Zelensky's parents are safe in a beachfront property in Tel Aviv.

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    2. >hasn't had 80% of his staff fired or died in mysterious helicopter crashes

      except for high ranking oligarchs that are getting a weird case of falling out of the window at random resorts you mean?

      >banned all political parties in the government except his own

      soo pretty much exactly how Russian parliament works

      maybe get your facts straight before you post some dumb shit next time

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  9. Very plausible. No doubt nukes would be a key point in all the behind the scenes negotiations.

    We are returning to an era of hard power moves.

    The competition with China will make the U.S. and possibly NATO pull all kinds of maneouvers to contain and weaken their allies ahead off any major conflict.

    Whatever about before and no matter what way the war ends today, over the next 20 years its very possible to the Russians that Ukraine could become a NATO spearhead to neutralize them, in the same way Russia sought to pre-emptively neutralize Ukraine. The current invasion would be the casus belli.

    The Russian forces are degenerate, and even though they would still be enough to defend the state in case of your every day "invasion of liberation", they are losing credibility as a major power deterrent at home or overseas. An unrestricted NATO conventional-weapon conflict would, as this war is showing the world, cut them to shreds.

    So its entirely possible that the nuclear sabre rattling will be pushed to the next level. Nukes are a wildcard.

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    1. I agree and have stated in previous posts that Russia lost the information war very quickly. The interesting question for me is that when Russia "wins", whatever shape that inevitable victory takes, how will the West and NATO explain the loss to its populations? The saddest reality, after all the weapons and NATO money spent, is that Western media will blame the Ukrainians for not fighting hard enough. That will be the greatest injustice considering the Ukrainian defense should go down in history as one of the most courageous in military history.

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  10. I must say that War Tard provokes some very deep, reasoned and highly intellectual debate and analysis as evidenced in the comment section hereinabove. Some wonderful contributions.

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    1. Hear hear. There is no place for vulgar language in these discourses either. It's downright rude.

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    2. And for all you sceptics and Luddites here I leave you to ponder on the wise words of Marcus Aurelius, "The secret of all victory lies in the organisation of the non-obvious"

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    3. How is an author responsible for the opinions and comments of the people who read him?

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    4. The WarTard comment sections have always been as interesting as the articles themselves. Since War Tard came back and began writing about his view of the Ukrainian/Russia war, this blog has attracted the worst kind of people. People who know nothing about war and just spout their own ideology without regard to a study of what is happening in the war. I fell sorry for WarTard. He always spoke his mind. His old audience have moved on and these new people know little beyond Western propaganda.

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  11. Russia is unde attack by the decadent west. War Tard is right. Zelensky is a clown

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  12. This fucking place is full of fucked up people who haven't a fucking clue what their fucking talking about or what this fucking war is all about and that includes War Tard in particular who writes all this fucking bull shit

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    1. If so, then why are you here and wasting your time typing in a comment
      section?

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  13. Sorry old boy but no one to the best of my knowledge is actually attacking the Russian Federation

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    1. What are Nato doing. What about Poland. There lined up to invade Russia. Same with the Rumanians

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    2. Get a fukink life dude

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  14. War Tard was right when he said the Poles were itchin to invade. I believe him so fuck you

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  15. If this little border dispute is resolved, will Ward Tard give assurance that every other country in eastern Europe has no reason to fear any incursions by the Russian Federation?

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  16. NATO shud've disbanded in 91! No reason for it anymore? Did I miss a Russian invasion of a fellow European sovereign nation?

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    1. Not only did you miss the battle, you missed the war.

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  17. War Tard is a Putin luvin piece of dirt

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    1. Easy man. WT is a man of peace. So that he's not caught up in contagion then there should be peace, piece by piece man. The UN will have to tell Zelensky to go away. Sit on the beach. Enjoy the sun

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    2. Please provide proof? You cannot state as fact because your emotions tilt one way because you've got nothing true. If you can provide proof, then the comment section is wide open .Show a reasoned argument that offers a counter argument? You can or cannot answer it. All opinions are welcome here. WT has allowed me to allow all opinions here even shills. I don't believe you are a shill and I do believe
      shills exist to derail conversation.. My idea is that if you are going to express an idea that you feel here then go ahead. So long as you can express it beyond a single sentence snark.

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  18. This is hard shill work, so making the case in the comments as requested. The position put by Putin all the way down to his bloggers: if you dont back down, what choice is there for Russia but the final choice? YOU, the WEST are periling the world, forcing Russian hands to escalate to nuclear war! It is preposterous that defending yourself from aggression, and those defending you, are to blame for escalation in that aggression. You do not get to claim self-defence after punching someone in the head.

    And, in my view, we are not at risk of nuclear war. It is a feint, as all has been proven with Russia time and time again. Are we to believe that Putin is also a Mad King? Which is he: savvy defender of Russian interests or a lunatic? Putin will never launch nukes. He may as well try and kill Zelensky by shooting him through his own temple. It wont happen. Failing total annihilation of Russia, even China, India and Iran would turn their backs. It's a lose lose play.

    So what of the argument for Russia's self-defence? The shilliest of shill points is the alleged casus belli of the war - the existence of NATO on Russia's door stop; to stop the conversion of a former USSR State to the West's orbit. What the hell is Latvia and Estonia then, via Poland? Literal steps away from St Petersburg and just as close to Moscow as Ukraine. NATO has no intention to invade Russia, nor has there ever been any indication of that in the last 20 years. They could not care less about that rouge petrol station. And no, Ukraine is not special in this regard because of geography. NATO does not have to worry about Kaliningrad or Belarus. Russia can barely supply their war in Ukraine. St Petersburg wont get supply ships even as far as Gotland. Lukashenko cannot afford to deploy troops elsewhere lest pro-democracy western forces commence their own Orange Revolution. Nor would he want to dance tête-à-tête with Nato.

    The war was a stupid gamble that Putin thought he could win. It was hubris. It worked so many times before. Now he fights for his political life at home. He interfered and played games with the West's elections; a sacred process to them. The West has every intention of teaching Russia a lesson and bleeding it dry - slowly. Putin is like a frog in boiling water, committing more and more as he has less and less yet doesnt notice as he over extends his forces over and over again.

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    1. The Rand Corporation and the Pentagon agrees with War Tard.

      https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

      "The US ending its financial, humanitarian and particularly military support promptly would cause Ukraine to completely collapse, and RAND cites several reasons why doing so would be sensible, not least because a Ukrainian victory is regarded as both “improbable” and “unlikely,” due to Russian “resolve,” and its military mobilization having “rectified the manpower deficit that enabled Ukraine’s success in the Kharkiv counteroffensive.”

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    2. Thats a nice twisting of that report and its findings. Not helping the good guys because they might lose isn't a winning mantra though.

      BUT I dont think it matters to the West if Ukraine eventually loses. Russia's pockets are not as deep as the West's. It's the Cold War all over again. The only question is can Russia kill enough Ukrainians to win the war before their economy throws a spanner and we see the dissolution of Russia? (USSR Breakin' 2 - Electric Boogaloo.) That is the West's pitch to win this war.

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    3. This is my reply to Anon on Feb 1, 4:20pm

      Let's have some fun. To quote you...

      "This is hard shill work, so making the case in the comments as requested. The position put by Putin all the way down to his bloggers: if you dont back down, what choice is there for Russia but the final choice? YOU, the WEST are periling the world, forcing Russian hands to escalate to nuclear war! It is preposterous that defending yourself from aggression, and those defending you, are to blame for escalation in that aggression. You do not get to claim self-defence after punching someone in the head."

      I've been writing this blog for 12 years. I write about current conflict and historical conflict. It's a side hobby of mine. I've neglected the blog for years. But this war is interesting to me as was the US abandonment of Afghanistan, major events which drag me back to my keyboard. Are you suggesting that my tiny blog is for sale? I never took a penny from Adsense, put up a donation button or ever asked for support from readers. My writing and opinion have always been free. I am not for sale.

      Next you say,

      "And, in my view, we are not at risk of nuclear war."

      That may very well be true "in your view". But not to the sources I quoted, and I am merely reporting on what they said. https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
      I am reporting on facts others say not stating facts I say. Your next logical fallacy is...

      "So what of the argument for Russia's self-defence? The shilliest of shill points is the alleged casus belli of the war - the existence of NATO on Russia's door stop; to stop the conversion of a former USSR State to the West's orbit."

      Yes. That's why this war happened. Half of Ukraine is Russian speakers. I have no side in this war (why would I?) but apparently independent analysis is pro-Russian in your view which reveals you as the shill, not me.
      And finally, quoting you again...

      "The war was a stupid gamble that Putin thought he could win."

      You must be from a different planet. This war is already over. Ukraine's Army is being actively crushed without mercy. Putin's popularity rating in Russia is at an all-time high. The only question is how NATO will respond? That is the context of the nuclear battlefield nuke option in the above article.

      Finally, when I am proven right, and the tragedy of Ukraine is made clear will you come back here and admit you were wrong and taken in by propaganda? All sides have propaganda. I don't believe most of what the Russians say either. But will you? My email is listed to the side.

      I think not.












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  19. We in the Rand Corporation agree with War Tard! Can you fucking imagine that.

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  20. You're right my brother. Really, at this point the only way I see this ending is with a Ukrainian defeat or with WW3.
    Because Russia thinks Ukraine joining NATO is an existential threat to Russia (and rightly so) they have no other alternative but to destroy Ukraine. Because, as the Russians see it, either they lose fighting or they lose when Ukraine joins NATO and USA puts missiles in Ukraine...so better to fight.
    and a negotiated settlement seems out of the question as well because USA/Ukraine will never give Russia all their requests (which honestly seem reasonable). And even if they did Russia at this point wouldn't even want to accept an agreement because they had one with Minsk 1 and 2 and USA/Ukraine broke it and now they even admitted that the agreement was never signed in good faith and was only a means to buy time to militarize Ukraine, so there's no more trust between both sides.

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    1. As commenter above notes. There are no NATO missiles pointed at Russia from Latvia and or Estonia, so Ukraine is not the risk Russia says it is. As for Minsk 1 and 2, bloody hell. Russian backed rebels in the east who never settled down after both agreements, which was escalated into an actual Russian invasion...and you blame Ukraine for that?? It's so bloody obvious that Russia was stoking that discontent as a pretext for war.

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  21. The point of this whole conflict was NATO wanting Ukraine in the alliance, and Russia keeping that from happening at all costs. Crimea was always a red line for the Russians, under no circumstances will they give up Sevastopol. Donbass was useful in the sense that it kept the Ukrainians from joining NATO, but it was always a temporary solution to the bigger problem of the Ukrainian government becoming closer and closer with the West. That problem was supposed to be solved in the first week of the invasion. That's why it was called a SMO because it was supposed to be short and sweet. The Russians underestimated the professional Ukrainian military and the amount of support from the West. Now the conflict has devolved into a massive meat grinder that is designed to deplete the Ukrainian military until they have no choice but to seek terms. Those terms will likely require Ukrainian neutrality and Russia keeps the Donbass and Crimea. How many men die before we get there is debatable, but I think that's the end game for Putin at this point.

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    Replies
    1. Dugin's Dead DaughterFebruary 2, 2023 at 6:13 PM

      Yep, this is simply one empire gobbling up the remnants of another.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

      "Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia have been offered by both the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union to join their integration unions. All three countries signed Association Agreements with the EU on 21 March 2014."

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-idUSL0179714620080403

      2008: "NATO leaders promised Ukraine and Georgia on Thursday they would one day join the Western defense alliance after rebuffing U.S. demands to put the former Soviet republics on an immediate path to membership."

      The Kremlin weren't about to just sit back as their economic and geopolitical interests were taken beyond their reach. Ukraine was a major one. So they acted as best they could, leading to this shitshow.

      Simple as.

      Delete
  22. Replies
    1. Revenge of you and meFebruary 4, 2023 at 6:57 AM

      Semi Chuckle: Not so sensible. All state media is propaganda. Stay away. If you must watch it, watch it for free. I cannot provide links here because War Tard will ban me immediately.

      Delete
    2. If you provide an argument, a counter argument or any reasoned opinion, even if it makes me look like a fool, you will never get banned. The only comments banned here are "War Tard is an asshole". "War Tard is an idiot," etc. because these are not serious. Ironically, if those posters had the ability to construct a reasoned argument contrary to my own, they would be welcomed. Explain why I am an idiot/asshole? I have never deleted a comment especially when I have lost the argument.

      Delete
  23. The legacy of generations, values and traditions- this is what makes Russia different, what makes them strong and confident in themselves , in their righteousness and in their victory.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Sounds ominously like War Tard himself wrote that

    ReplyDelete
  25. Told you he's Putin's guy.

    ReplyDelete
  26. From the fuckin start!

    ReplyDelete
  27. I dont see the Ukranians ever agreeing to neutrality again. They did that after the fall and handed back their nukes. They took a hiding with the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements. All that got them was more invasions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My God. Please only comment here after you've read some history and know what you're talking about.

      https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/12/22/ffci-d22.html
      https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/merkel:-minsk-agreement-attempted-to-give-ukraine-time
      https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-admit-failure-germany-defense-policy/

      Delete
  28. Colonel MacGregor's latest take. Very much the same as WT's take and recorded two days after this article.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nWPC8d4TLA&ab_channel=StraightCallswithDouglasMacgregor

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow! So WT is McGregor's source for what's happening on the ground. Holy shit man!

      Delete
    2. Wartard's post is 2 days before MacGregor's. I do agree they are on the same page. If Wartard is a Russian shill then so is the best US tank commander of Desert Storm.

      Delete
  29. Not so my friend. McGregor is a patriot, War Tard is the Russian shill. He's based in St Petersburg

    ReplyDelete
  30. PMC "Mozart" failed in Ukraine due to addiction to alcohol and Kiev strip clubs - https://archive.today/2TFef
    Villages of Sakko and Vancetti were entirely taken by the PMC Wagner. The house on the photo is the only one still standing in the village - https://t.me/antinatocoalition/6238
    Wagner has captured Blagodatnoye - https://files.catbox.moe/m17ihg.mp4 / https://t.me/s/wargonzo/10586
    Ukraine will receive Abrams no earlier than the end of 2023 - https://archive.today/MDCbo

    It's a fucking shitshow.

    All of these probing attacks by the Russians are designed to test the Ukrainian front line, shape it, find the weaknesses in it before deploying the massive 300,000 - 500,000 man army ready and waiting to go in. (100,000 will be support troops, drivers, mechanics, specialists, tech personnel, radar operators, Anti AA defense techs). But it still leaves 200k combat mechanized infantry going up against Ukraine's 5th recruitment drive which includes men from 16-60 which is all they have left out side of a few elite battalions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is the real tragedy nobody is talking about. Thousands of men and boys being rounded up at gunpoint with zero aptitude for war of interest in war, being rounded up and bring press ganged at gunpoint into a uniform to go serve as fodder for an unstoppable meatgrinder hundreds of miles from home. A deal should have been made a year ago. It was mostly through hubris and orders from Washington that it wasn't. When the true facts of this war come out (when it's all over), people will be sickened by what was done to the Ukrainian people from both East and West.

      Delete
  31. 1. This war comes at an awfully convenient time for the US, to distract us and prevent a civil war.
    2. NATO has known all along that surrounding Russia with NATO members would cause Russia to start something. I am surprised that Russia didn't go to war when the Baltics were accessioned into NATO. NATO was even given a warning by the Russian invasion in Nagorno-Karabakh when Georgia wanted to enter NATO.
    3. When Ukraine's manpower starts to run dry, miraculously, more volunteers will show up from western countries with the skills to run Abrams, Challengers, LeoII, F-16s, and all the other complicated equipment we just shipped to Poland. NATO is, quite obviously, boiling the lobster slowly to keep Putin from getting uncomfortable and dropping a tactical nuke.
    4. When the Russian army revolts at 500k kias, NATO will negotiate with Putin's successor or successors if it fragments more. This is the end game that, I'm guessing, has been wargamed out. A war with China won't use many 155 arty shells, so depleting the west's stocks of them won't embolden China to grab Taiwan.
    These are my predictions. Humans are the worst. Especially those who rise to the apex of heirarchical systems. Go ahead and poke holes in my predictions, please.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Where the fuck is the humanity in all of this military shitspeak of yours?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Until humans can expand Dunbar's number, there will be little humanity. War is a waste of human potential. It will be the downfall of our species.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Are there any comparisons to be made from the Bakhmut situation to the Battle of Verdun in World War I? For example, Germany's intent of inflicting significant casualties on the French Army, with Germany having a larger manpower reserve and thus able to accept more losses than France.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Turkish newspaper leak. The actual casualties in this war for Ukrainian forces.

    157,00 dead
    234,000 injured
    17, 230 Ukrainians captured
    6,320 tanks and armored vehicles destroyed.
    7,369 artillery systems destroyed
    497 Anti Air systems destroyed
    Entire Airforce destroyed
    The list goes on...

    In comparison to this, the Russians have lost 18, 500 men
    This is a massacre that needs to be stopped. When there existed a credible United Nations this war would have been stopped last August. But there's nothing to end this. The Russians are seal clubbing but it's allokay because NATO is sending them 100 tanks maybe by August.

    Ukraine will not exist by August. How will the mainstream media in the West explain this to their vast audience who they have manipulated into thinking that Ukraine is winning this war when it was impossible from the start?


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Source: https://hurseda.net/gundem/246987-iddia-mossad-a-gore-ukrayna-ve-rusya-kayiplari.html

      Remember, Turkey is a NATO member and supplied hundreds of drones to Ukraine. This is an accurate assessment in line with US Colonel MacGregor's assessment.

      Delete
    2. Such accurate comparative reporting. Russia lost 18500 men, 0 injured, 0, captured, 0 tanks and armoured vehicles lost, 0 artillery systems destroyed, 0 aircraft destroyed and the list doesn't go on. This is not fog of war stuff, it's downright Russian propaganda, deliberate falsehoods perpetrated by War Tard on behalf of his Russian masters.

      Delete
    3. Read the full report. The Russians lost since you're tool azy to even bother studying the report...

      Russian losses...

      23 Aircraft
      56 Helicopters
      889 Tanks and Armored vehicles
      427 Artillery pieces
      12 AA systems
      18,400 men dead.
      44,500 injured
      325 captured.

      So there are the figures you were too lazy to read.

      Who's winning?

      Delete
    4. Only a fool would believe those Russian losses. Typical War Tard fantasy

      Delete
    5. So the Moskva has not been sunk? Zero losses for the Russian navy?

      Delete
    6. Nobody ever claimed the Moskva wasn't sunk; not even the Russians. Was that supposed to be an analogy?

      Delete
    7. Nope, just questioning the accuracy of the Russian losses you mentioned above. As they make no mention of naval losses, it stands to reason, that the other numbers are incorrect as well.

      Delete
    8. The Moskva sank. There was a a long salvage attempt. 98% of the crew were off loaded and saved. It was a major loss and embarrassment for the Russian Navy. But in hindsight, it galvanized the Russian people behind a war effort they were not sure about from the beginning.

      Delete
  36. Dugin's Dead DaughterFebruary 6, 2023 at 5:20 PM

    On the economic front, the Russians have adapted and continue to trade with half the world, including Turkey, China and India.

    RUSI says the Russian Forces have many problems preventing them from performing at full capacity, and doubt they can correct all these for the current conflict. However they are still formidable.

    https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

    Girkin is pessimistic about any large-scale Russian offensive, due to much of the same problems as RUSI mentions, and the Kremlin's unwillingness to commit enough resources upfront for a decisive victory (likely for political stability reasons).

    However quietly in the background mobilization continues at a steady pace. The 300k-500k incoming conscripts will be close in quality to WW1/WW2 infantry (still dangerous), but may continue to suffer command issues.

    Russian citizens still "support" the war and Putin, but most no longer follow it. Those that do, do so via Telegram etc, as the mainstream media talking heads have long since lost credibility by claiming they have destroyed the Ukranian army 5x over while losing little themselves, despite many MIA, conscription continuing and being visibly bogged down in the east.

    The Ukranians have lost the initiative since Kherson and Kharkiv counter-offensive and rare glimpes in western reporting reveal heavy attrition.

    Despite reinforcements of equipment and personel on both sides, many observers predict a stalemate close to the current lines of the 4 annexed territories, with maybe one or two minor territorial exchanges.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Bakhmut is practically surrounded. Once it falls, it's mostly open country all the way to the Dnieper.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Sad part is that refusing to fight on the Ukrainian side is getting harder each day. You just have got to hope civilians band together and get sick of this shit and start sabotaging the vehicles of recruiters and paying their families unannounced visits. Those are the ultimate kin slaying scum. Driving around in their vans far away from enemy lines, probably laughing their asses off about young men crying about wanting to see Mamma one more time as they dropped them off at the barracks to be sent into a meatgrinder, gloating about how they have the most awesome job ever, the living embodiment of cowardice, while somehow believing they are doing a patriotic duty.

    ReplyDelete
  39. I have a question for War Tard, what do you think of the CCP? Are you going to post about the China v Taiwan situation. On one hand, my contempt for the West has reached the point where I support Russia against NATO, on the other hand, I dislike the CCP even more. I understand why Russia is allied with them, but I can't help but feel the Chinese are an inherently untrustworthy people, not to mention they have set the precedent for horrible shit like eating bats and dogs and draconian lockdowns that don't work. It makes me wonder had the West not been so hostile towards Russia and expanded NATO up to their borders after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they wouldn't have driven Russia into working with China and giving them cheap oil they used to have to import by sea?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Please don't ask for comments on CCP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why? The commenter is entitled to ask for anything, especially if he well reasons out his question sincerely, which he did. My question is who are you to ask or refute any discourse here? If you don't like it, why comment or even be here? Just go read The New York Times or The Guardian and be happy. I don't think they even allow comments anymore and most of what they write.

      Delete
  41. I remember something WT said before about the 2006 Israeli incursion into Lebanon and how Hezbollah were basically ushering in the new supremacy of heavy infantry armed with modern shoulder mounted weapons after they destroyed some Israeli tanks and held the IDF back. I would go further and say I don't think large operations like this war are possible against a near peer opponent in the 21 century.
    It is very complex and if your enemy keeps harassing your supply depots, maintenance with mid range missiles and ambushing you with ATGMs its just going to become a nightmare. Most of the breakthrough weapons got a huge nerf in the late 21 century.
    Tanks gets defeated by drone assisted artillery(precision ammo is even more effective) and ATGMs.
    Airplanes gets defeated by large availability of modern anti air missiles.
    So what remains is a grind with infantry backed up by artillery and drones and tanks and airplanes are relegated into a secondary support role.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a good point to revisit. Thank you for reminding me!

      I think piloted aircraft are a thing of the past due to the sophistication of modern air defenses. This war has proved this. The Russians are not using their considerable air force and have lost a significant number of helos. For me, helicopters are not worth their cost on the modern battlefield. Vietnam was their time and even then they were valued for their air transport role to remote locations rather than anything else.

      Likewise, tanks are losing prestige. They are World War II remnants just like aircraft carriers.

      I think that the Russians have stumbled upon a new paradigm not by design but by brutal and fatal experience. And that is the realization that modern warfare falls back into WWI warfare. Artillery plus heavy infantry with IFVs as cavalry to exploit breakthroughs but never straying too deep beyond artillery cover.

      The more things change, the more they stay the same. You can bet every military on the planet watching this war and taking note. Neither NATO nor Russia was fully prepared for drone surveillance, precise targeting, total air denial and the ancient stiffness of well prepared dug in defense lines.

      Delete
    2. Back in 2006, Hezbollah didn't only hold the IDF back. In several battles they even flat-out defeated them. We studied it during officer cadet training and we found out that this non-state actor tore this modern army a new asshole in like three weeks. Alas, offence is a lot harder than defence, but considering how outnumbered and out-technologied Hezbollah was in that war, it shouldn't have mattered. They literally used an understrength brigade of 1000 troops and beat an enemy of a maximum of 30,000. In some battles you'd even see a company-strength unit of Hezbollah engaging two Israeli brigades and still defeating them.

      It is a pity that this war is seldomly studied, because it is one of the most outstanding examples of the evolution of modern warfare. Afghanistan and Iraq isn't even comparable to this.

      Shows, considering how little the Israelis want to talk about that war and how much Hezbollah likes talking about it.

      Delete
    3. Offense is definitely harder than defense. And I agree, WT was right on calling modern heavy infantry the "new reality". It's why the Russian's have been having so much trouble in a war they should have won months ago,

      Delete
  42. I pretty much agree with your estimation of this particular fuckfest, it is definitely WW3. The funny thing is that everybody should have seen this coming, because, long story short, the US policy towards Russia has been very autocratic; if they meekly play ball and make no moves to maintain or extend their power, they can continue to exist, otherwise they need to be broken up and their power eroded.
    Europe is the US back yard, there should be no competition. And God forbid Russia entering the EU, the entire Anglosphere trembles at this thought. It is very interesting nearly nobody will speak of this, even as there is tremendous US pressure on castrated Germany and a France that sees the EU ship slowly sinking, since Makron wanted to add Russia to the fold.
    The way this is going, Ukraine will lose badly and probably die as a sacrifice to US external policy, Russia and the EU will take very long time to ever recover and Russia entering the EU is probably a writeoff. Not that the US is getting off much better. Even if they decide to withdraw from providing support for rebuilding and stabilization, there is still China to handle and much internal strife, not to mention reorganization of the industrial sector if they step off the Emperors throne.
    If Ukraine loses in any way like you said and the US is so involved with China that they cannot exert sufficient pressure, it is more likely that it will be left a desolate place with little help. It is unlikely the EU will be as enthusiastic to provide restructuring aid after a loss when the economy is as bad as it is and getting worse.
    This timeline sucks.

    ReplyDelete
  43. War Tard, if you need some help moderating your comment sections (I see you have been overcome by a blizzard of shills) just let me know. I have the time.

    ReplyDelete
  44. "The Ukrainian Army has been bled to death". (New Col MacGregor assessment)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDHgQuNcL-g&ab_channel=StraightCallswithDouglasMacgregor

    The podcast also addresses this balloon bullshit. Such an obvious media psy-op, you wonder what the purpose of the diversion is? Obviously to deflect attention away from the Ukrainian military collapse but nobody really cares about Ukraine anymore. I think it's more. And it ain't UFOs.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Yes, it's PR to refocus the U.S. public's attention towards China.

    We have entered a global arms race.

    However the U.S. MIC is geriatric, over-consolidated at the corporate level and very inefficient at manufacturing. They can't even produce munitions at the rate of consumption in Ukraine. They are worried they won't be prepared in time (< 5 years) and focused enough to contain, deter and fight a rapidly growing China, their main competitor for 21st century hegemony.

    Asia will become half of the worlds economy and China are in position to be its leader. The U.S. fears if they don't box in China now, down the road they could end up being the ones boxed in. Classic hegemon paranoia.

    (Ironically, it was the U.S. who made their previous enemy the P.R.C. rich through Cold War trade concessions that went too far and resulted in the offshoring of everyones manufacturing bases for a quick buck).

    So the U.S. are beating the war drums now to get all that lovely taxpayer money for the MIC and boost their recruiting, and as you say to prime the public that Ukraine is not their main focus.

    For Ukraine, this means either Europe must pick up more slack, or it's getting near time to negotiate with the Russians. Good luck on getting anyone in Europe to agree on anything. The U.K. are the most bellicose and like their U.S. Anglosphere cousins they fear a resurgent Russia. The Germans want to cool things down and resume trade with Russia. France wants a centralized EU army with themselves front and center.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Indeed:

      "U.S. warns Ukraine it faces a pivotal moment in war."
      Washington Post, 13th Feb 2023

      "As first anniversary nears, White House fears flow of arms may be harder to come by.
      ...
      The frank discussions in Kyiv last month reflected an effort by the Biden administration to bring Ukraine’s goals in line with what the West can sustain as the war approaches its one-year mark.
      ...
      ""We impress upon [Ukraine] that we can’t do anything and everything forever"
      ...
      But some analysts warned that neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to seize a decisive military advantage in the foreseeable future."

      ---

      The US are telling Ukraine they better show results while the getting is good. They also did this last year before the successful Ukranian counteroffensives near Kherson and Kharkiv.

      This time the Russians are less overextended and should be better positioned. Even with their deep flaws, in the long run time and resources are on their side, and they are slowly adapting.

      Even now, if Russia can keep the annexed territories, its minor victory to them.

      Delete
    2. As it stands, i agree with you 100%. For Russia right now, this qualifies as a "minor victory". If rational heads ruled, the war could end here. But for Russia, who shall they negotiate peace with? Certainly not NATO and it's puppet Zelensky. So war it must be. If there were a negotiating table, I think a deal could still be made.

      But in absence of such a deal, and there is no sign of one, Russia will push her interest West once the Donbass falls and it's a clear road to the Dnieper.

      I do not think the Russians want Kiev or are prepared to fight for it.

      Odessa, I believe is the bargaining chip. When Bakhmut falls and Russia has cleared out enough AA systems as it can find, I think close air support comes into play and (just like the Russians did in Syria), they'll bomb the Ukrainians into peace. One third of the population of Ukraine has already fled the country. They are drafting 16 year old's and 50 year old's. But the engine of their population is dead or fled.

      I wish it would end.

      But it cannot. This useless loss of human life cannot end until Ukraine waves a white flag of surrender. How long this will take is anybody's guess, but it is a date coming in the future. How many must die before that flag is raised or must the total annihilation of Ukraine be the only end point?

      Either way, after the NATO supplies, Nordstream destruction, advanced weapon supply, US satellite intelligence data and NATO contractors and military and billions of dollars keeping Ukraine afloat, it must end in horror. For me, when the Russians find themselves king of the rubble, will the victory by a Pyrrhic one?

      Delete
  46. Yeah, the national language laws play into Putin's claims of Russian Genocide. They are like a lighter version of the Chinese erasure of independent Uygher culture, but many countries have historically had them, including Russia itself! Its part of an overall strategy by the West-Ukrainian government to culturally homogenize and unite the demographically divided country, which means no more 10-15m Russia-sympathetic populace.

    Sadly what the Ukrainians themselves want is of lesser concern to Russian and Western interests.

    To expand on the point above about why Russia are invading now, even if it's not a smooth operation:

    From the Russian security perspective, they see:
    • The 2014 Maidan "coup"
    • Hostile Ukrainian government which is pro-West anti-Russia anti-East-Ukrainian
    • Cultural erasure and political disenfranchisement of 10-15m pro-Russian eastern Ukraine
    • Escalating civil/proxy war
    • Failure of Minsk agreements
    • Declaration of independence of the pro-Russian separatists who (in coordination with them) sent a defence request to Russia
    • Ukraine quickly joining EU instead of EAEU
    • NATO expansion to beside the belly of Russia despite (non-written) post-Cold-War assurances they wouldn't expand eastwards. Russia says this poses an existential threat to them. NATO might not attack today, but they might tomorrow, with some pre-emptive "Iraq WMD" type justification. Look at the media hype about "insane Putin" and thermobaric weapons which everyone else uses. NATO can fill Ukraine with artillery, long range missiles and nuke interceptors, which the current Ukrainian government would gladly accept).
    • Western arms and training for Ukrainian government turning them into de-facto military ally (Russia is doing this too with the separatists)
    • A West/US that is continuing to chip away at Russia by stripping away allies, and trying to sanction, contain, and neutralize them.
    • The risk of losing Crimea and secure access to the Black Sea. This is a major geostrategic concern for them.
    • A decade+ of fruitless diplomacy with the West for Russian security concerns

    All of this compels Russia to act now before all of Ukraine was absorbed into the West, using the defence of the Donbass separatists as a causus belli.

    Massing their army at the border was the last step in negotiations with Ukraine/The West - if they had backed down after being rebuffed, it would have told the world "Ignore Russian diplomacy and military threats, they will just give up". They had no real alternative.

    IMHO this conflict was 100% predictable and preventable 10+ years ago, and was fuelled by NATO who dangled the promise of a military alliance in front of a historically neutral Ukraine, even though it would clearly lead to a serious confrontation like this. The question is whether they have a plan (e.g. Russia, China, Taiwan etc), or whether they are just institutionally naïve.

    From history, Great Powers don't want to directly fight each other because they know it will be a total mess and both will lose, but a conflict involving a third party can steadily escalate out of control and drag them both into a major war. The only way to prevent it is with painful compromise.

    ReplyDelete
  47. This does seem to have greatly accelerated the threat to the Russian state, but I don't think it changes the outcome, which is why they acted now before it got worse.

    Checkout "Vladimir Pozner: How the United States Created Vladimir Putin".

    The only diplomatic options being offered to Russia from the West are to become a weakened client state of the US. Russia refuses and wants to maintain its "Imperial" independence and safety (just like the US and many other powers throughout history), but for the West it's too dangerous to let our old Cold War rival grow strong again, so the U.S. wants to decapitate the state.

    There are US PNAC/CNAS "Wolfowitz Doctrine" neo-conservatives all over US-Ukraine relations.

    What's worrying is where all this could be headed.

    Either:
    • Relations return back to what they were before through peace negotiations/diplomacy. (How likely is this now?)
    OR
    • What the west "say" they want: The entire Russian executive government is permanently overthrown, deeply purged and replaced with a malleable client state (doubtful as Putin still has public support, and he is too seasoned in statecraft to be at risk of a coup. Could another autocrat rise? Would it have a destabilizing effect on the state and region?)
    OR
    • We get a new Iron Curtain between Russia and the West, parallel global monetary systems, and Russia allying with China, the new Cold War competitor in the 21st century. Could this be what NATO/US/EU actully want for some sound strategic/economic reason? Or is this another classic American Foreign Policy total misadventure that will end in disaster?

    Why make a gamble this huge over Ukraine staying out of NATO and letting Russia have Russian majority Crimea and eastern Donbass.

    Don't get me wrong, Putin is a ruthless anti-democratic autocrat, and I love democracy and the Pax-Americana, but sometimes we can be led into absolute folly that could have been easily prevented.

    ReplyDelete
  48. So War Tard, on the year anniversary of the "Special Military Operation", I would have expected a post today. Either way, your insights are always appreciated. We are entering new territory and it'd be nice to know when exactly I should make a run for a remote location.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Stupki in the north of Artemovsk came under the control of Wagner, they also entered Ilyinovka - https://t.me/rian_ru/195523

    Explosions reported near Minsk, most likely drone attacks on military infrastructure - https://t.me/RVvoenkor/3923

    The Musicians took the villages of Berkhovka & Yagodnoye - https://t.me/antinatocoalition/6908

    Russia suspends participation in START III nuclear arms treaty – https://archive.today/w4Ghh

    Biden visited Kiev, Ukraine will receive a new $500 million military aid package - https://archive.today/Kvvom

    Air raid alarms all over Ukraine (20.02.2023 — 12:43(MSC)) – https://archive.today/tgfro

    US accuses Russia of Crimes Against Humanity, Zelensky: "Give us cluster bombs. We are not party to the convention on the prohibition of cluster ammunition" - https://archive.today/xJmT7

    Kiev announced the beginning of the formation of the first Pshek special forces subordinate to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine - https://archive.today/5oXSB

    Energy infrastructure once again calibrated, emergency shutdowns in many regions - https://t.me/antinatocoalition/6765

    Paraskovievka has been liberated by Wagner - https://t.me/voenacher/39767

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  50. After fertilizing the soil around Bakhmut, Russia looks finally set to liberate its carcass with much fanfare. Elsewhere they grind forward with cannon fodder.

    Some RU milbloggers fear a swift Ukranian counteroffensive with better (NATO) training and intel that could overshadow the success of Bakhmut in the news. Western arms continue to trickle in.

    China is weighing up supplying war material to Russia. This would help keep Russia as a strong piece on the chessboard against a burgeoning Chinese-containment alliance. Retaliatory sanctions from the U.S. would hurt them in the short term, but those are already building up anyway. Russia would slide deeper into their debt.

    The question for China is whether its worth taking all that early heat only to see Russia blunder it away. Maybe they should also run the war for them, their generals do have way more medals on their chests.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Prigozhin or Putin. That's the game now

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  52. What happens after Bakhmut now that the Russians have taken it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fake news. As of today, the Russians haven't taken Bakhmut.

      Delete
    2. Glory to Ukraine!

      Delete
    3. It's true Russia has taken Bakhmut yet. It seems they have taken everything east of the river which cuts the city in half. It is operationally surrounded and would require a large Ukrainian assault from the East to relieve. It's hard to see that happening so its fall seems inevitable. Its loss will be a bad PR hit for Ukraine and NATO. Bakhmut was a central transport hub that was essentially a very defensible area for the Ukrainians. The reason it's so important is that the next 150 or so km west and northwest of Bakhmut is indefensible flatlands. Russia owns the South and can now coordinate mechanized units on the roads to head further westward. The Russians have committed a lot of forces and artillery to this point on the front and the Ukrainians have some significant brigades to the West and may have options for a counterattack elsewhere (Melitopol)? That remains to be seen. Either way, the loss of Bakhmut particularly due to the forces the Ukrainians invested in its defense, is a significant strategic and major propaganda loss for Ukraine.

      Delete
  53. Next up Georgia. Anyone care?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Vlad needs to get in there and fix their voting machines.

      Delete
  54. Great work WT. It's been a long time. It's so refreshing to rediscover you again!

    ReplyDelete
  55. KhanCloud, you can't be serious or are you WT

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am WT and I was/am serious, In time, though you might disagree with me now, you will come to see that an unwinnable border dispute in Eastern Europe drags the world into a conflagration I cannot see a way out of....

      Delete
  56. Trump now a declared Putin ally!

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  57. Backhmut still Ukrainian

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    Replies
    1. In what way is Bakhmut Ukrainian? It's gone as a functional Ukrainian military asset. What matters now is what happens next. It's no secret that NATO have been amassing a force of foreign equipment, foreign troops (a lot of Poles, Eastern Europeans and specialists/mercs from the NATO nations). They seem intent on a counter offensive. As I have stated before, this war is subject to contagion.

      Let's look at the contagion.

      Russia and China have been driven closer. Iran has allies now. Brazil just signed a deal with China to conduct trade in Yuan instead of dollars. Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a peace deal. Syria just got an invite back into the Arab league. OPEC decided to cut oil production a percent and made Biden a beggar.

      Anyone with their eyes on the big picture should see that this border war has become world destabilizing.

      War is the death of men that politicians throw at politics that cannot be negotiated.

      Modern warfare is an attack on currency, dollar hegemony and the Post WWII order.

      The contagion is spreading. And the most damaging part of this mind virus is that Western Civilization is morally and financially bankrupt and not a model they must follow.

      Delete
    2. and i would argue that the contagion spreading is not necessarily a bad thing. The dollar getting crushed and USA getting its come uppance will be a poetic justice in a lot of peoples eyes. USA has been war mongering since the big 2, overthrowing democracy, murdering and bombing, lying and killing.

      Delete
    3. I would argue that Bakhmut still serves the same function for the Ukrainians as it did for the last 10 months or so: binding the Russian troops, draining their energy, equipment and manpower, keeping them from engaging elsewhere.

      As for the demise of the West: that's wishful thinking. The West is as strong and unified as it ever was. Russia is bleeding money, men and equipment everywhere with no plan to stem it anywhere to be seen.

      China is Russian's friend as long as they getting something out of it. There is no love lost between the Chinese and the Russians. Their 'friendship' is purely transactional.

      So where does that leave us? Probably with a lot of bloodshed still to come, but very likely with a Ukrainian victory some time in the future.

      Delete
    4. I am going to have to disagree with you on your main point.

      Bakhmut is an annex city, a somewhat useful transport hub( for the Russians it is useful because their Army is rail based and for the Ukrainians stopping Russian mobility has advantages). However and for reasons known only to the gods of war, Bakhmut has become a sort of Verdun. The Ukrainian command has decided to pour troops into the city wholesale. And when I say troops, I'm talking 16 year olds to 50 year olds grabbed off the street in vans by Ukrainian secret service and expedited to a two week course on how to shoot a rusty AK-47 at a can 30 yards away.

      Hey presto, you're a soldier!

      As the Pentagon classified document leaks have revealed, Ukraine is losing men at a rate of 7 to 1. Just this fact and these figures alone in any war in any time in history is not just a loss but a catastrophic loss. Why must NATO continue with the idea there is victory to be had here. I am sorry for Ukraine. But this was a fight that could never be won. I stated this in February 2022 and I stand by it in April 2023.

      Here's the hardest part for people in the West to understand now (those who believe media outlets).

      All the Russians have to do is wait. Sit back and watch NATO fracture. With the defenses Russia are building along the lines of territory taken (4 meter deep V shaped tank traps backed by solid concrete pyramids, there is no room for genius maneuver warfare like Rommel in North Africa or Napoleon at Austerlitz.

      This war has become a meatgrinder.

      And Ukraine is running out of meat.

      Delete
    5. "As the Pentagon classified document leaks have revealed, Ukraine is losing men at a rate of 7 to 1."

      It's actually the other way around: the losses are 1:7 in Ukraine's favour. That ratio cited by you was a very hasty and obvious Photoshop job. I suggest you check your facts. And your predictions. All of which have turned out untrue so far.

      Delete
    6. Xact, I'm sorry dude, but you must have read those documents upside down.

      Delete
  58. Gotta ty do better!

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  59. It's 3am in Bakhmut.
    The twenty thousand men under your command have been reduced to five thousand. There will be no new rotations into the city.
    Both roads into and out of the city are under Russian fire control.
    The fields behind you are under Russian fire control.
    You do not know if your enemy will kill you if you try to surrender.
    If you try to evacuate it will be a massacre.
    Your President phoned the Chinese President to see what he could do and the Chinese said Solly No Can Herp You Roundeye
    Kiev keeps telling you to hold on, the counter offensive is coming soon.
    It only takes two weeks for the fields to dry, then there will 200 new tanks and 2000 new fighting vehicles in play.
    But it won't stop raining.
    Today it rained again.
    Somebody arrives and tells you that the Russians just took the Industrial College an hour ago, which is on the road which was your best escape route.
    What the fuck do you do now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. grab a few friends and a big white towel and run as fast as you can?

      Delete
  60. Latest info

    Air raid alarms all over Ukraine – https://archive.today/mJSHY
    Massive explosion's at Pavlograd railyard after airstrike. S-300's and ammo reportedly lost – https://files.catbox.moe/4o9fzv.mp4
    Tu-95's in the air, Ships w/ Kaliber hypersonic missiles sailed into the Black Sea, missile launches reported by Ukrainian sources sources – https://archive.fo/olUAf
    Ukraine controls less than 3km of Bakhmut – https://archive.fo/az86y
    Drone hits oil terminal in Sevastopol – https://archive.fo/J1r9s
    Russian troops destroy an AFU train with ammunition near Kramatorsk – https://archive.today/rTcj6
    "Kontrnastup" will definitely begin in May – https://archive.today/0JDmI
    Russian AA shoots down a US-made spy drone near Energodar – https://archive.today/u83Xy
    Russian artillery destroyed an AFU holdout near Ugledar – https://archive.today/gWMHA
    Polish general says they can't keep up with supplies & the situation in Ukraine doesn't look good – https://archive.today/5Ixhb

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey war Tard why you posting as anonymous? Everybody knows it's you

      Delete
  61. 3 months later and we can't get another wartard Russian shill article? Are the fsb checks bouncing?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Russians are not paying me enough. So I'm waiting for my SWIFT payment into my account.... oh wait! NAFO killed that payment system along with one third of the world's transactions. China, India and Brazil are ditching the dollar. This is not my fight. Watching the West crash and burn through energy costs, bank failures and inflation is not my favorite thing. But it's happening. Yet, there's something energizing about being alive at the end of the world.

      Delete
    2. SWIFT is still operational in Russia. Only certain banks have been excluded. Again, you're playing fast and loose with the facts.

      Delete
    3. Yet, there's something energizing about being alive at the end of the world." popcorn ready. Be glad we live in interesting times.

      Delete
  62. Who reckons this latest move from wagner is a shakedown? I.e. we can take bakhmut but it will cost you extra...

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  63. Looks like a Ukranian offensive is underway on multiple fronts. Will the Russians hold or fold...

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    Replies
    1. Russian lines are not designed to be impenetrable, but to slow down Ukrainian advances long enough for reinforcements to arrive to prevent tactical breaches turning into strategic ones.

      So we will likely see true and false reports of breaches here and there, but how successfully those are converted to long term strategic gains will determine the results for Ukraine.

      Delete
    2. On the openings of the "counteroffensive", western milbloggers say Ukraine are slowly softening up the front lines by striking equipment, logistics, personel groupings and command & control positions from afar. They move to exploit weak positions, and are trying to stretch the Russians thin by attacking in multiple places at once. Fairly standard, this is predicted to happen continuously over the next few months.

      Many expect Bakhmut to continue to be exploited by both sides in fixing operations. Some say that "we never retreat" Wagner PMC bullshitted their way out of the Bakhmut frontline (leaving the conventional army holding the bag) in advance of any heavy counteroffensives so their core veterans (vital for their business) wouldn't get chewed up. However it's possible that, like other well equipped and experienced units, they are being held back as a strategic reserve force to counter any breakthroughs. Hard to imagine the Kremlin would continue working with them otherwise.

      RU milbloggers (Girkin, Murz, etc) are deeply pessimistic about Russia's lack of political and military preparations. Of course they err on the side of caution, but time may prove them right.

      The Ukranians & their NATO advisors are no fools militarily and will attack carefully. Most of Russia's cards are already on the table. Both sides have guided munitions, however the U.S. since Eisenhower has an overwhelming satellite surveillance complex all originally designed against conventional forces like the USSR, which is almost the same army they fight today. An area the Russians fell behind in after the fall of the Soviet Union.

      However it will be difficult for the Kremlin to give up either Crimea or the 4 annexed oblasts in the Donbass. To do so would demonstrate they are unable to defend Russian territory and lead to more internal seperatist rebellions like Chechnya, something which Putin cut his teeth on. So the Kremlin would probably like to park this costly war at the current annexed borders, at least temporarily.

      In the long term, Russia's slow move to a war economy (and deepening MIC trade with China, growing both arms industries back to wartime levels) and increasing mobilisation for their degraded army shows they are preparing for a long war. Whatever happens now they will likely be back for Round 2, politics and internal stability permitting.

      Many in Kiev are calling to the West to help them expell Russia completely and turn Ukraine into an unassailable Eastern-European bulwark against Russian imperialist revanchism", to deter the Kremlin from considering further action, be it through joining NATO or more weapons etc. However the U.S. and E.U. have limited supplies and are still spinning up their arms industries.

      Looks like this one could simmer for a while.

      Delete
    3. Excellent analysis. Thank you.

      Delete
  64. So now that Baknmut has fallen to the Russians like you said it would (it took some time), where does this war go from here? Are the Ukrainians with NATO weapons and money going to mount a breakthrough attack? What's your assessment?

    ReplyDelete
  65. Wagner are definitely shaking down the Russian military. But it is no different when Eric Prince, CEO of the private US company, Blackwater, shook down the the US government as private contractors. The issue with private contractors is they get paid 6 figures, 5 times more then an ordinary soldier. Yes, they have more combat experience and they know how to fight. In the Russian case, Wagner have gotten full artillery support, have hard as fuck soldiers who have seen war and dodged bullets and now equipped with the latest weaponry. Even in a quagmire like Bakhmut, they cut their way through it slowly but surely. For every man they lost, the Ukrainians lost seven according to the Pentagon leaks. This war is not sustainable for the Ukrainians. But let's see? Whar are NATO prepared to throw at it? Just kike one million soldiers died on the Somme and had know idea they were fighting in WWI, today 95% of the world has no idea they are engaged in WW III. that'll be for the historians to write. WWIII is fifth generational warfare and most of it is control of the public's mind. Ukraine is the sideshow while the public is asset stripped and lulled into a surveillance society they never saw coming.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 7 to 1 ratio is the russian photoshoped version of the leaks. If after all this time you still come with this, it means you are ill-intentioned not only stupid.

      Delete
    2. Enlighten me Anon. What is the correct ratio?

      Delete
    3. If you were really curious you could find the leaked documents. There are various numbers, mostly indicating casualties around 2 to 1 in favour of Ukraine.

      Delete
  66. More shite from war tard

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    Replies
    1. Dude, can you just fuck off. We get it, you hate this blog. So why do you keep posting here? Your IP address is Dublin. Is it that boring there these days?

      Delete
  67. New report from RUSI:
    "Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine", Watling & Reynolds, May 2023.

    Good reading. The Russians will be tough to beat.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Hey WT. I dont always agree with your perspectices but appreciate your analysis. Personally i liked the older posts about WW2 or histprical acts of war. Any chance of a fun post, something to distract from the existential horror?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. but existential horror is the most fun thing, no?

      Delete
    2. Yes. I've got a Sub stack and will be writing articles there. A lot of them historical.

      Delete
  69. Obviously the fall of Bakhmut was damaging to the Ukrainians and Western propaganda. The Russians have now conquered a city that basically looks like Hiroshima 1945. I must say, the Russian propaganda war in the West is woefully inept. At this point, with Russian mobilization peaking, the possibility of peace dies day by day. I think as we enter June, things will move decisively. And not for the good of Ukraine. I respect the Ukrainian Army. It was and is one hell of a defense. But a deal should have been made in Turkey in Feb/March 2022. They would have ended up with more. Sadly, it was NATO who called the shots for them and used the average Ukrainian soldier as fodder to damage a geopolitical rival. Now Russia, China, Iran and other BRIC countries have been pushed into an alliance previously thought inconceivable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. John Mearsheimer spoke recently at the "Committee for the Republic", May 22nd (up on YouTube).

      He still agrees with you WT.

      Reiterating the points he made earlier: Escalated by the West, everyone views the other side as an existential threat now so no lasting peace deal likely, things are still in Russia's favor and Ukraine will end up getting wrecked.

      Delete
  70. Yes, the dream of evil NATO is to take Russia, and settle its Western oil and gas workers to drill in -60°C permafrost, paying them - at minimum - $80,000 a year, with OSHA and unions and whatnot breathing down their necks and so forth.

    Instead of... Russian slaves doing it for less than $9,000 a year, using stones and sticks, and just selling the shit, because they have nothing and can make nothing and need everything. While not escalating conflict into WWIII and keeping Russian throat in firm grasp with everlasting sanctions would lower the price per kilogram of metal and cubic meter of gas even more.

    A valid logic, indeed, mr. Tard. 140 million Russians agree with you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it is for sovereign countries to decide their internal politics, pay scales and work practices. These are entirely domestic affairs. You may not like them., But supplying their enemies and conducting a proxy war against them does nothing to change such practices. It just gets people killed. You may not like Russian domestic policies but the solution is not the supply of lethal weaponry by NATO, mass murder and the prolonging of a war that should have ended a year ago.
      Go tell that to the 100 million Americans on minimum wage.

      Delete
    2. The proper "solution" would have been to dismantle this federation of evil when there still *was* a valid chance - in 1991. I'm sure quite a few US generals jerked, and probably could, if they tried, but were told to sit down. I'm also sure that's also what many people thought in 1942, looking at Hitler thinking what'll happen to Jews next. And there probably were similar nihilists/useful idiots telling them to look other way and just let go. And then 1943 happened and 1944.

      Until greasy smoke from the chimneys of death camps kinda made it hard to enjoy walks in nature and sense came back.

      It never gets better, only worse. Especially when sitting on hands.

      Delete
    3. @Anon: You think it would have been a good idea in 1991 for NATO to invade nuclear-armed Russia and regime-change their first democratically elected government? XD

      Delete
    4. I don't think Anon May31/9:59PM has any concept of geopolitics. Much less realpolitik. He/she runs on emotion. And while I do understand the sentiment, it gets you nowhere once the ordinance starts flying. As the Prussian General once said "No plan survives first contact with the enemy".

      Delete
  71. "An Unwinnable War", Samuel Charap, Foreign Affairs, 5 June 2023.

    The war will likely continue destructively for years, or until it ends in negotiations. Ukraines ability to keep going is contingent on Western support.


    "What the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to do to win", Kramer & Schneider, War on the Rocks, 2 June 2023.

    Highlights inconsistency in training, inexperienced officers, lack of combined arms practice, problematic logistics (compounded by the variety of western supplies) and "Soviet mentality" still present in much of the Ukrainian army. Meanwhile they are sustaining heavy casualties.

    They could in theory achieve all this reform, just like the Russians could in theory. Now they are busy just trying to survive.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Dear War Tard- I am very disappointed in you. Not doing your homework, sonny boy. There is big war going on with huge implications for the heathen readers you had promised to live blog this some time back. Please hit the books and get to work.
    Mom

    ReplyDelete
  73. I think he has other more important things on his mind than a special operation

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think we can safely refer to it as a war now.

      Delete
  74. Replies
    1. 156 comments:

      War TardMarch 12, 2014 at 8:23 AM
      Thanks for all the support everyone. If this war enters the shooting phase, I'll live blog it every day!

      Reply

      Delete
  75. According to Reuters, after fueding with and denouncing the top brass in the Russian MoD, the FSB opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, calling on Wagner to ignore his orders and arrest him.

    Prigozhin claims the Russian MoD hit Wagner with an airstrike killing many, and is now leading a Wagner veteran column against them in retaliation.

    Putin and Surovikin declared Prigozhin and his fellow soldiers actions to be mutiny. They both remember 1991.

    Pizza sales increasing around U.S. Defense buildings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If this isn't staged, then it's very surprising that Prigozhin didnt just fall out of a window.

      Instead, the government intel services openly and calmly declared war on the head of a nationaist veteran private military group.

      Seems pretty dumb to me, but then again they did botch the intel going into this war...

      Delete
    2. Apparently after a conversation with Lukashenko (and approved by Putin), Prigozhin has called off the march on Moscow after getting some security garauntees.

      Despite the peaceful resolution, Girkin (who hates the PMCs) thinks that without punishing the mutiny by force, Putin has now been shown to be a weak president and the government has suffered irreparable reputational damage.

      Wild.

      Delete
    3. Anyone seen Prigo lately?

      Delete
  76. War tard, do you have any comment? Or are you waiting for your FSB talking points?

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    Replies
    1. I am not waiting for any talking points. I only write what I know and during that coup or whatever it was, I kept my mouth shut. You know why? Because I didn't know shit what was happening and neither did anybody else. I saw a lot of speculation on Twitter and Telegram and tuned out because I knew the chatter was all bullshit. This war is now entered a very dangerous place. Like I said it would. You see, I only say something when I'm certain of something. And even that's risky because reality will come along and prove you wrong. No newspaper, no TV news and no armchair general got this right. I knew I couldn't get it right so I kept my mouth shut.. It was interesting. Traffic to this blog tripled to hear my take. But I didn't have one because I didn't know. I don't write speculation. I write facts as I see them.

      Delete
    2. 'Facts' are independent of one's interpretation. Hence WT cannot write facts "as he sees them" !

      Delete
    3. Play semantic games, win pedantic prizes. You know exactly the epistemological meaning of what I'm talking about.

      Delete
  77. Now it’s REALLY time to break out the popcorn. Wagner V Russia let’s gooooo

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  78. Russian major general Ivan Popov (58th Army) warns the situation at the front is becoming difficult due to high casualties and lack of counter-battery fire, intel, recon and logistics.

    He delivered a blustering report to the high command and threatened to take his message to directly to the president, resulting in the MoD relieving him of command for alarmism and blackmail.

    Later Andrey Gurulyov (Russian MP in the leading United Russia party and former commander of the same 58th Army) picked up his message from the 58th Army's closed chats and released it publicly. The head of the party Andrei Turchak accused Gurulyov of turning it into a political show, but while also saying Popov's "conscience was clear" and "Russia can be proud of such generals". Other MPs involved in defense says the MoD should deal with the issues raised.

    ---

    Meanwhile, Ukraine is having a tough time getting through Russian front lines. The U.S. is set to supply them with cluster munitions to make up for other ammunition shortages.

    Zelenskyy is angry at NATO for not giving Ukraine a guaranteed date or plan for when they can join, despite past promises. They fear that Ukraine's NATO membership is still up for negotiation between the West and Russia, and that uncertainty encourages Russia to continue.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Early reports from the front lines suggest the Ukranian counter offensive is not going as well as many had hoped, for many different reasons.

    They lack enough equipment (mine clearing, air defense etc), soldiers and combined arms manoeuvre training to smash though the lines.

    They aren't going to do a Thunder Run on Moscow with just a few Leopard 2s...

    ReplyDelete
  80. WW3 happening and war tard has become bore tard. seesh

    ReplyDelete
  81. Former FSB operative and early war supporter Igor Girkin / Strelkov has been "arrested" after months of increasingly outspoken criticism of the defence ministry, government and finally Putin himself.

    Allegedly even before the Wagner rebellion, the Kremlin was monitoring the domestic information space to understand where criticism is coming from and what groups pose a destabilizing threat. (E.g. reports by Matveychev).

    Liberal opposition in Russia is already disorganised, broken and weak and poses no threat. The prominent jingoists and "hurrah patriots" in the media however were increasingly using the veil of patriotism to criticise shortcomings of the government in the "Special Military Operation". The groups around them were evolving into outright opposition of the government. Their messages were also being amplified in Western media, and one of the main hopes of their geopolitical enemies is the division and internal collapse of Russia through such opposition, making the patriots "useful idiots" of the West.

    So the government is now cracking down on this opposition, telling these prominent figures to temper their criticism and arresting those who can't be negotiated with.

    If successful, this would reduce the possibility of an internal revolt in Russia, and this war will keep going. Those pinning their hopes on internal collapse should also have alternative plans.

    Who can say the Kremlin doesn't have a strong propaganda game.

    ReplyDelete
  82. WW3 happening. War tard asleep at the wheel. Drunk in a bar

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  83. I heard WARTard is going to wait until World War 4 before his next blog. Don't hold your breath wise guy!

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  84. World War 4? It will be WW5 before he gets off his ass

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  85. ww6 will be fought with meat cleavers

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  86. maybe WW7 we will have a replacement war tard that actually works.

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  87. Leave him be. War tard is not well!

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  88. Worst piece you’ve written. 2000 words of ignoring the last 20 years Russian aggression throughout the region. Totally denying agency of the Ukrainian people. Cool cool, good work

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  89. Honestly, every sentence I read is just a holy shit moment of total belief at the purity of shit spilled in this article.

    “ With NATO pushing this war beyond what is necessary or logical”

    Good to know you think that ANY of RUSSIA’S invasion of a sovereign nation is necessary or logical. Pretty clearly stating your position as a Russian shill there

    ReplyDelete
  90. its funny to see the troll clowns show up saying war tard is a russian shill only promoting the narrative that Russia is innocent. People that say that Like to ignore the facts on the ground. Head over to Larry Johnson for some fresh perspective. https://sonar21.com/how-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end/

    ReplyDelete