Monday, November 15, 2010

Caesar at Alesia: The ultimate Ancient Battle. (Part I)


   Someone asked me the other day:

  "What's your favorite ancient battle?"

    Nine times out of ten I'll say it's Caesar at Alesia. The sheer will Caesar displayed to pull off that victory blows my mind. It's like my war porn. It bypasses reason and goes straight to the reptilian brain and sets up camp there spitting out hormones and shit. Even the way that name rolls off the tongue makes me get all misty and secrete man tears. Kinda like Caesar himself when he wept staring at Alexander's statue in Spain. Caesar was 54 and cried because Alexander had captured all he had by 29. That's bad ass ambition right there. If that was the seminal moment that sparked Caesar's conquest of Gaul, in pursuit of the long dead but younger Alexander's military legacy, well he sure as shit bit off as much as he could possibly chew when he laid siege to the town and hill fort of Alesia in 52 BC.

   Alesia is the most awesome battle in military history. Certainly as far as ancient war goes anyway. I mean, usually I'm big on modern battles with tanks, air superiority, cool blitzkrieg moves and all that fun stuff. But since my dream war never actually happened, you know, that Fulda Gap NATO versus Warsaw Pact 80s slug fest on sap green European terrain; the three million tank rush into West Germany that never happened. And, I suppose, thank dog it never did happen because I wouldn't be here today writing about it if it had. I'd be too busy bashing in my neighbor's brain with my improvised club for his non irradiated water in that hypothetical 'sticks and stones WW IV' that Einstein warned about.

   Still, ancient war has a lot of cool things going for it. Especially Roman warfare. The 1st century BC Romans were a lot like 1941 era Germans; scary bastards with the best army on earth, novel tactics and loads of cool equipment. In the Roman case we're talking siege equipment that nobody else had, ballistas, scorpios and onagers. Caesar had a whole baggage train of this advanced tech with him by the time he rolled up on Alesia.

   The Romans themselves were shorter men than their Gallic enemies, squat and tan and decidedly Mediterranean on the cold damp foreign terrain of northern Europe. Kinda like Sylvester Stallone versus Brian Dennehy's men in First Blood. The Gauls were tribal Iron Age mad fucks with large Cro Magnon skulls, long hairs who wore bear skins and wielded battle axes and broadswords with their testicles hanging out. They were pretty fearsome but Roman discipline was key and their tight formations meant the Romans could defeat superior numbers of these lunatic alcohol frenzied Gauls who tended to charge in waving their dicks instead of using their brains. You know, the type of French dudes that might have been more useful in the Ardennes in 1940.



   Caesar was an interesting character himself. Thousands of history books will confirm that. But anyone who's read his memoir and his own account in his Conquest of Gaul will know that he refers to himself constantly in the third person in his own book. Ballsy style. "So what if I come off like a self righteous asshole," he seems to say to history. It's like he knew there'd be centuries of people jizzing on his badassery for years to come:

"he raised a rampart and wall twelve feet high; to this he added a parapet and battlements, with large stakes cut like stags' horns, projecting from the junction of the parapet and battlements, to prevent the enemy from scaling it, and surrounded the entire work with turrets, which were eighty feet distant from one another."

   That's Caesar talking about himself ordering his men to build the greatest logistical work of all time at Alesia. When you read about Alesia, it makes you realize that every Roman soldier was automatically a carpenter by default. Their ability to build was unparalleled. Antlike hive mind determination. It also makes you wonder why 10 years after 9/11 ground zero is still a construction site. If Caesar were running the US today those twin towers would have been rebuilt a year after they'd collapsed, ten stories higher than the tallest building on earth and with a 1000 square foot "fuck you" banner fluttering in high winds above New York City. That's just how Caesar rolled and an example of how badly modern leaders suck.

   But let's set the scene for this historical battle.

   Caesar invaded Gaul when the Romans only owned the Italian peninsula, Greece and a chunk of Spain. Caesar was a hungry general. He was the kind of guy you could get behind if you were a young man in 55 BC. Joining his army if you were a plebeian who could handle himself in a scrap was a seriously cool career choice for a young man. It seriously beats working in some grey cubicle in some call center or fast food job today. Caesar was successful because all of his soldiers stood to make some serious bank if they could deliver victory. Incentive. Unity of purpose. Comradery. Shit you just don't get in the modern office environment.

   And lets face it, marching into enemy territory as part of a large unified group of your peers with a high possibility of significant reward and a secured retirement of land in Italy when you retire after 20 years of service is a pretty good deal. Sure, you might die, but hell it's better than the paltry college education the US military doles out to kids today. Degrees these days are about as valuable as 'yes I can do the jerb" written on a piece of toilet paper. I'll take that spoil money from Gaul and a farm when I'm forty any day over a scribble that says I can push pencils.

   As he invaded Gaul, Caesar would grab territory by force if necessary but by diplomacy preferably. You see we're dealing here with a world before nation states. Kinda like the native American tribes in the 18th century. Gaul was ripe for the taking by the Roman legions just the way the New World was by the Europeans and the money to be made in the process was legendary.

   The usual practice was to war in the spring and summer and then as winter closed in fortify your army in a stronghold (having made sure you'd secured adequate grain supply for winter). Caesar would then head back to Rome and start greasing palms with all that newly acquired bank, buying public support via exposure, subsidies and sponsored games. Kinda like a one man Fox News of the ancient world.

   Alesia proved different.

   The Roman encroachment of Gaul had been going on for years by now and the Gauls were beginning to realize that Caesar's divide and conquer tactics and their own failure to unify as a single entity of Gauls against the Romans was their collective downfall. What they needed was to coalesce behind a charismatic and unifying leader. The Gauls needed someone to step up to the plate who the various Gallic tribes could agree to get behind.

  And then Vercingetorix appeared on deck.

  The modern French still get as misty eyed over this guy as if you'd airdropped a million onions into the room. He's the French hero of antiquity, he who stood up to the tyranny of the Roman invasion. It'd be analogous to how the native Americans would have worshipped Geronimo if they'd ever had the hypothetical independent states they might have owned if they hadn't been overwhelmed by greedy invaders and reduced today to harvesting the stupidity of people who think they can walk away from a casino with a net profit.

   The French love Vercingetorix. He was the charismatic leader of the Averni tribe and once the Gaulish tribes were united behind his leadership, they could field some serious infantry. We are talking hundreds of thousands of seriously pissed off angry drunk guys united under a single banner. The Roman legions under Caesar were at most a forty thousand strong force.




  Vercingetorix noticed how Caesar would leave every winter for Rome with his army holed up in a stronghold. He decided on a new tactic in 52 BC. It was going to be a scorched earth campaign. Vercingetorix might me the first recorded commander in history to realize that time proven valid military tactic that has lasted all the way to modernity. Burn those fields behind you as you retreat! The Russians knew this very well in 1812 and 1942. Destroy that grain supply behind you as you run like a bitch.

   Suddenly, Caesar had to interrupt his political intrigues in Rome. Shit had suddenly got real in Gaul. A challenger had arrived. Caesar raced back to his legions, using multiple horses like Maximus in Gladiator. When a challenger appears, you need to get on that shit fast lest the idea spread too far and all that gold and land your army has acquired begins to crumble.

   That's the beauty and terror of warfare and human conflict.

   A single action can be so decisive. A single victory on a single day due to multiple random circumstances and incorporating shitloads of luck, can echo down across history for thousands of years. Wow, it's the thought that makes me fall into a philosophical reverie and makes me go out and look at the stars. The temporary nature of this existence. What men have done in the past and how cheaply they sacrificed their lives in search of an acre of land. Here's me, alone in the dark at my computer, wondering what it would have been like to be part of Caesar's army at Alesia as opposed to being a lazy armchair general munching pretzels and downing beer.


  Caesar is concerned but not intimidated. ( According to his own account obviously). Caesar knows that the hill town fort of Alesia is critical. He knows that the capture of this town is a simple route to breaking the Gauls. It's kind of like one of those battles in history where you always wonder what if? If Bastogne had fallen to the Germans in '44, would the Tigers and Panthers have made it to the Belgian coast and captured those oil reserves and ports like Hitler planned? If Vercingetorix had managed to wipe out Caesar's legions, would the Roman Empire have risen as it did to encompass most of Europe and North Africa?

    "The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there".

     Alesia was the last stand the Gauls had to make.

     The greatest siege in history must now happen!

(Part II here)

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Are the TSA and airport scanners proof that the terrorists have already won?



    I was watching a video of some guy on YouTube who'd left his camera running while getting TSA screened. The guy refused to let the TSA guy feel up his balls the standard four times. Neither did he want to get irradiated in the 'isolation chamber' where TSA agents get to see you naked. He just wanted to be like all the other passengers who hadn't been singled out and gone through a standard metal detector test. Because he didn't submit to sexual molestation or naked scans, he wasn't allowed onto the plane. However, this guy was ballsy in the way most people are not and stood up for himself by posting his shit on Youtube and declined to board that flight. He grabbed a refund from the airline which really pissed the TSA off.

  And that's when it happened.

  I had a 'Kurtz like Apocalypse Now' moment, a realization, like a diamond shot into my brain, pure, crystalline, clear... and I realized the horror of what's happening in modern America.

   The terrorists have already won!

   All this war on terror bullshit that's been going on for the last nine years, two multi billion dollar wars later which were basically US Government airdrops of the tax receipts of an entire country over Middle Eastern deserts. But when it comes to the point where your own citizens cannot board a flight without being felt up like some creeper in a porn theater or getting irradiated so some government goon can perv on your naked body, you know the war is long over. Mission fucking accomplished for the terrorists.

   If Bin Laden is alive in his mountain fortress he must be high fiving his guys like crazy. He was indeed right. He was indeed playing Jenga and he rightly predicted that all it would take was the removal of one block and the US would freak out and lose the game all by themselves.



   Then I got to wondering, on a purely cost benefit analysis, could 9/11 be the most cost effective military operation in the history of the world? Seriously, I love me my 'asymmetrical warfare' but I can't come up with a similar type economic victory in history where the ratio of the cost of the operation to the economic damage inflicted was so skewed.

   I mean, there aren't any examples in terms of scale. The U-boats sunk 1.6 million tonnes of British shipping in six months in 1940 which is a decent return on investment for the cost of a few torps. Still nothing on the scale of 9/11 though. The 9/11 Commission came up with a figure of $400,000 for the total cost of the terrorist operation and that's including pilot training, accommodations for the hijackers, money blown at strip joints the night before, car hire, Home Depot bought 'box cutters'.

   Four hundred pissy grand. Some people on Wall Street shit that amount.

   Now let's look at the return on that investment. First off, the US government created the boon doggle that is the Department of Homeland Security. (That word "homeland" still freaks me the fuck out and sounds too much like the 'Fatherland' uttered by B actor Nazis in the war movies I grew up on in 70s. Only the 'bad' guys say shit like that). Anyway, DHS has cost the US 250 billion by 2010. Throw in another $750 billion air dumped into Iraq and $370 billion pissed into the winds of Afghanistan. That's conservatively $1.37 trillion dollars for a crappy investment of four hundred fucking grand. Doing the math on that cost benefit analysis, that's a 1:2500000 return on investment. The fucking German U Boats aren't even in the same ocean.

   9/11, the greatest military victory of all time.

   The 'terrorists' fucking won!

   (And they get to feel up your grandma at the airport)

Monday, November 8, 2010

Israel v Iran (Part II): The Israeli 'dream strike' on Iran's nuke sites.



   The Israelis are running out of time.

  The Iranians may have enough fissionable material to have their very own big red button of win on the Ayatollah's desk in two years. So what do they do? Do the Israelis launch the attack against the Iranian nuke facilities without American approval? This is the crux of the main Israeli beef with Obama right now; the fact that he won't go along with the Israeli dream strike.

   The US military has gamed the Persian Gulf over and over and the fact that the Iran attack is not happening means the results of those games were not very promising. In 2002, the Pentagon tried to suppress the findings of a huge US war game called "Millennium Challenge" where the US Navy (Blue Force) was pitted against a "hypothetical rogue state" (Red Force) in the region. Red Force was led by Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, a total bad ass, whose job was basically to play the role of the butt raped lesser nation at the hands of the mighty technology of the all powerful US Navy. Instead of following the script, this Van Riper guy went off reservation and went all asymmetrical on Blue Force's ass, an ass which consisted of a full US Navy carrier group.

   Though the rules stated both commanders could use any rule in the book, the brass didn't expect the shit Van Riper pulled. Once the war game was up and running Van Riper's force disappeared off radar. He relied on couriers instead of radio to stay in touch with his field officers. The US navy cryptographers were rendered useless in a single blow. He employed novel tactics such as coded signals broadcast from the minarets of mosques during the Muslim call to prayer, a tactic weirdly reminiscent of Paul Revere and the shot heard round the world. He even used carrier pigeons to deliver messages to some of his commanders. God I love this guy! He then launched a daring attack against the US Blue Force carrier group by hundreds of kamikaze speedboats some of which were armed with Chinese Silkworm anti ship missiles. I shit you not. The result was a carrier and two helo carriers sunk along with 13 other assorted ships, the worst defeat of the US Navy since Pearl. The Pentagon had a shit fit and scrubbed the whole exercise, dismissed Van Riper and replayed the whole thing this time making Blue Force 'win'. Basically, the navy brass pretended it never happened. Lunatics in speedboats apparently don't count and are considered 'cheats'.

   Today, nobody at the Pentagon underestimates the serious nature of a war with Iran. Like I said in Part I, the Israelis are comfortable with their 200+ nukes. A Shia nuke removes 'theater dominance' and forces the Israelis to negotiate with the Palestinians for 'peace'. LOL yeah, I just said 'peace' in a Middle Eastern context. The biggest hindrance to Middle East 'peace' right now is a credible check on Israeli power and their nuclear arsenal. And if the Israelis can't get the Americans to neutralize Iran for them, will they go 'rogue' and attempt to do it themselves?

   And this is where the fun stuff really begins my friends.

   Don't get me wrong. The Israeli air force owns a nice spectrum of US hardware. F-15s, F-15 strike eagles, a broad selection of F-16s in interesting variants and they've gamed this attack multiple times. I think the right wing politicians currently running shit over there have this idea in their heads that they might just be able to pull this off. The only restraint right now is the spider tree of possible repercussions. They nailed Saddam's nuke venture at Osirak in 1981 and the Syrian nuke venture outside 'At Tibnah' in the desert in 2007.  Natanz and Bushehr are the new targets. Problem is the Russians have been running Bushehr with their nuclear fuel and their scientists since September so a 2000lb GBU-29 dropped there is going to open up a whole new world of pain.

   So the primary target for the Israelis is obviously going to have to be the main facility at Natanz.


   Take a look at how Natanz has been slowly disappearing under 20ft of reinforced concrete over time. The Israelis have received shipments of 'bunker busters' from the US in the past that can punch through this but curiously Obama blocked a recent shipment of the latest generation in March. [Update: Obama just approved a new shipment of bunker busters to the Israelis in October 2011. Holy shit!] It was made clear to the Israelis in not so subtle a manner to cool their shit down. Obama would obviously like to avoid a whole new war and let sanctions take their course. But the Israelis know full well that sanctions will do nothing to stop the Iranian centrifuges. Hence, the Stuxnet computer worm and 'mysterious explosions' on Iranian air force bases that just happen to kill scientists who know things about nuke fission. Obama, for a time, was not playing the K Street game so the Israeli lobby in Washington  floated some decent bank around DC to help him lose the mid term elections.

   That's not to say shuffling cash around Washington is illegal or that the Israelis are evil. They're just taking advantage of a game with ill defined rules. Hell, the Supreme Court recently ruled that corporations (and lobbying groups) have personhood so they can funnel cash to hungry politicians all they want. Let's face it, you buy your way to the top these days and it's tough shit if your opinion is not heard. The only crime these days is having no money.

   So despite the drawbacks, lets get to the fun stuff and say Israel launches the attack solo. Assuming they cannot "legally" use Iraqi airspace, they'll either have to skirt the Turkish border like they did when they bombed the 'At Tibnah' facility in Syria in 2007 or fly South and skirt the Saudi border or use Saudi airspace. (The Saudis have hinted they'd be cool with this. Those Wahhabi loons recently cashed in sixty billion of their petro-dollar fun money for new US military hardware and they hate the Iranians for shitloads of reasons going back three thousand years to the days of the Persian Empire). The Wikileaks document dump just proved this beyond a shadow of a doubt when it turns out Crown Prince Abdullah has been begging the Americans to bomb Iran for them. Who knew, something the Israelis and Saudis can agree on! Either way, the route is going to cost fuel. Lots of fuel. Fully laden F-16s are hungry for juice when pushing through dense low level atmosphere to avoid radar.

   That's where the Israeli weakness truly lies. Their shortage of refuelling tankers, namely 707 tankers. Various estimates state that they have 4-8 of these fat boys available and all will be required to pull off a successful first strike. The less fuel required on each plane, the more ordinance it can carry. So obviously the more 'refuelers' you can field directly co relates with the efficacy of the 'mission'.

   The next question is, what will Iran have waiting for them when they get there?

   The Israelis managed to block an $800 million Iranian deal with the Russians for delivery of the S-300 missile system. That's a seriously nice piece of modern SAM tech and had the Iranians gotten their hands on a few batteries of those, it would have made the Israeli to do list orders of magnitude more difficult. As it stands right now, it's hard to piece together an accurate picture of just what the Iranians have got in terms of air defence. Everyone knows they do have a lot of Soviet supplied SAMS (SA-6) from the 80s which are easily jammed by today's technology. They also have an hilarious mixture of cobbled together systems from the world over, including some British Rapier systems, some shit they reverse engineered from the US before the Shah fell and their Mullahs went all hostage crisis and got Reagan elected. Also, they've got the Tor (SA-15) system supplied by Russia which is quite a capable system and would cause Israeli pilots some underwear skid marks. They also claim to have 2 S-300 systems they say they bought from Belarus and showed off at a military parade in Tehran this summer but that is most likely bullshit they floated to freak out Israeli military planners.

   Where this whole clusterfuck gets really interesting is if the Israelis will be packing some low yield nukes in their ordinance. Because one thing is for sure. Whatever strike the Isrealis make, it'd better be decisive because the amount of blowback all across the world means the Israelis are going to get one shot at this and they better make it count. But using nukes even if low yield and underground with limited fallout is still going to create an international shitstorm. But the Israelis are used to that.

   And now comes my favourite part of this whole war.

   The Iranian response.

   Seriously, this is armchair general wargasm in its purest form. Let's say Natanz is dust and a good many other nuke sites around Iran are seriously damaged, setting back their 'red button of win' program five years. How do the Iranians respond?



   If the Iranians want to go full retard they can launch all their Shahab 4s, two stage rockets that can easily reach Tel Aviv accurately, and reign down some serious pain. Hell, if they wanted to get dick waving crazy they could load up the warheads with chemical hell and wipe out hundreds of thousands. But this would merely invite Israel to nuke them back to the stone age. So that's an unlikely move on their part. The Iranians don't have an air force capable of launching a reciprocal strike on Israel so what do they do?

   My favourite option if I were an Iranian general?

   Attack the Saudi oil installation at Ras Tanura, 100 miles across the Persian Gulf from Bushehr. Forty percent of the world's seaborne oil passes through this port daily. Launch everything you have against that, turn those fat naked storage tanks and pipelines into burning wrecks, and suddenly oil goes to three hundred dollars a barrel overnight and now the whole world is involved in a total clusterfuck.

   Every Western nation's economy will crash fast now that spice flow is hindered. Everyone will be drawn in. And since Iran also happens to be sitting on the 4th largest oil deposit on earth, their oil is going to get valuable fast. The Iranians can spam mines into the Persian Gulf just to make sure no tanker can go about its lumbering business. There will be nothing the US Navy or Israelis can do about any of this unless they can track ten thousand speedboats. Obviously the Saudis will be highly pissed but other than some bombing runs there's nothing they can do to realistically damage the Iranians.

   Also, Iran has threatened other asymmetrical goodness in the event of a sucker punch.

   For instance they've got well equipped heavy infantry in Southern Lebanon by the name of Hizbollah. Basically, a well equipped Iranian proxy army on Israel's northern border. Israel tried to get tough with this crowd in 2006 and found themselves suffering unexpected losses. Heavy infantry in fortified positions is the new win in modern warfare. Sure Clausewitz will say the attacker always needs a 3:1 ratio to overcome entrenched defenders but that paradigm is under new scrutiny on the modern battlefield. With modern weapons Hezbollah proved that that ratio has been pushed up to 5:1. The dirty little secret of 2006 was that Hezbollah damaged the Israelis more than anyone expected. It was the first war in fifty years the IDF didn't decisively win. Equipped with modern anti-tank rockets (RPG-32), shoulder mounted anti-air and concrete emplacements, this Iranian supplied form of heavy infantry proved that they could fuck with the might of the IDF. The Israelis lost 30 of their supposedly invincible Merkava Tanks and their F-16 sorties were flare launch fests because of the threat of being nailed by heat seekers. Entrenched, well equipped heavy infantry is the new passive Blitzkrieg!

   Anyway, the Saudi oil facilities are on fire. Oil has jumped to $300 a barrel. Hezbollah has begun launching rockets at Tel Aviv from Southern Lebanon. Tehran is under radiation alert. Multiple escalation events present in all directions. And the whole world has entered a new paradigm and must ask...

   How do you put the genie back in the bottle?

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Israel v Iran: The ultimate popcorn war (Part I)




Yes, there are a shitload of hypothetical contenders for every one's favourite future war. I mean who wouldn't want to grab the popcorn and watch a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan? Obviously, no sane person. That's why potential regional nuclear wars are not that much fun. All the fun war stuff happens before the last resort nukes get launched. Those fancy infantry maneuvers, tank thrusts, strategic interdiction by air forces, all that good stuff gets nullified when the generals start losing and resort to the big red button on their Strangelove desks. Wiping out a few million civilians in major population centers is a pretty shitty way to win an otherwise 'fair war'. Personally, I prefer something with a little more panache, you know, that war we all crave that's got old school Rommel maneuvers like Arras or Gazala. But pure war like that just doesn't happen much anymore.

To make my favourite war list it must be global and realistically has to involve the US or Europe for true wargasm. Obviously, the best hypothetical war that never happened is the clash between the Soviets and NATO in the Fulda gap in 1988. I was a teenager back then and shat my pants going to bed every night wondering if it would ever happen. The Berlin Wall fell a year later and the world got all misty eyed. We were supposed to believe that a world without war was possible from then on because the Russians had run out of money. Stupid humans thought a new war free age had dawned and the human habit of killing themselves for fun and profit had gone away. That vicious rumor lasted about a year and then Gulf War I happened.

So what's my favourite war that hasn't happened yet?

Here's a hint. It's a war that starts in the Middle East. I hear you laughing. Yeah I know, every major future war is going to start in the Middle East. Well this one will be US/Israel v Iran. It's the most fun war that could happen right now. It's got so much potential. Though this war will lack cool panzer battles and will involve no ground campaign at all (except perhaps for an Israeli 'defensive' attack on Southern Lebanon against Iranian proxy Hezbollah), this war will initially be an air campaign followed up quickly by all sorts of asymmetrical goodness that has the potential to spread like wildfire, destroy what's left of the world economy through oil supply disruption and possibly ignite WWIII.

Before we examine all the fun war stuff, let's take a quick look at the history of the two potential combatants.

Israel's history is pretty much well known since 1948. After the Nazi horror the world's Jews finally had gained enough political clout and enough world sympathy to undo the diaspora started by Vespasian's legions when Rome sent him to break up the Jewish revolt in 66 CE. I could give a shit about questioning the politics of who owns the land the Romans once called Judea. The fact is that the world has agreed to call a small swath of the Mediterranean coast 'Israel' and that is good enough for me. I only care about the fireworks.

Speaking of which, the Israelis own some serious military hardware. I mean for a population of 7.5 million, the Israelis are ranked 11th in world military strength. That's serious overachieving. They've got mandatory military service for men and women and, I suppose, who wouldn't when you're surrounded by a few hundred million Arabs who'd like to Zyklon B your ass. Also, the Israelis have 200+ nukes which makes them non 'invadable' and gives them regional 'theatre dominance' in any potential conflict with their Arab neighbors. If the useless Syrians and Jordanians and Egyptians all tried a rerun of 1967, and, by some stretch of the imagination overran Israel by acting in concert, that would force the Israeli generals fingers to the single red button of "win" that wipes out Cairo, Damascus and Amman.


Actually, that's the crux of the problem for the Israelis and why they don't like Iran. It's all about 'theater dominance'. Iran wants their very own big red button of win. Why must there be a war in this region? Because the Iranians, a country of 72 million people, are working like fuck to centrifuge enough uranium into fissionable goodness. They need that red button fast and for pretty good reasons. The Iranians have noticed that when you get named a member country of the "Axis of Evil" possibly the best way to maintain sovereignty is to fast track some uranium into something blowable. It worked for North Korea. Iran figures, since it's surrounded on all sides by Americans, maybe the only route to autonomy and stopping the Americans grabbing all your oil is a nuke.

They are being sanctioned to shit for daring to think this way.

Currently, American foreign policy is to support Israel. That includes filling out her air force with F-16s, F-15s and a secured future order of over 100 stealthy F-35 Lightnings. The Israelis also have a nice amount of American Apache helos but these are obviously useless for any campaign against Iran.

There's also a time factor built into this equation. The Iranians are probably at most 2 years away from having enough gunk cobbled together to set off their very own big one. If and when they do, Israel will have to play ball and get serious about giving the Palestinians a fair deal. That's what happens when you lose theater dominance. You end up having to negotiate.

Also, I'm sick of hearing the argument that Ahmajinidad is a madman and that as soon as he mints his first nuke he'll launch it and turn Tel Aviv to glass. That doesn't even make sense and would be the quickest way for him to turn 5000 years of Persian history into toilet paper. The Iranians aren't stupid. The Israeli response would be 200+ nukes reducing Iran to a post apocalyptic wasteland. Iran just needs that nuke for insurance. For deterrence.

And that's why Israel will have to decide pretty soon if it's going to attack. Because theater equalization dawns the second the Iranians detonate their first underground nuke.

I'll talk about the juicy Israeli attack in part II.

Friday, November 5, 2010

Bin Laden's Mountain Fortress: Newsflash from 2001! People actually believed this.




I bet there are a lot of people out there thinking I just pulled this picture out of my ass. Maybe I shopped this up after downing a bottle of vodka because I realized a sudden need to regain all those lost taxpayer dollars the US Government air dropped over the 'Graveyard of Empires'.

Well no. This shit actually happened.

In 2001.

They actually made Bin Laden into a Bond villain complete with his own high tech secret lair. You couldn't make this shit up. But they did. And people actually believed it.

Something you slowly realize as you get older is that people your own age eventually start running the world. Knowledge evolves slowly but arrives suddenly in a hammer smash before you are really ready to hear it. It becomes hard to reconcile the fact that the guy who you remember shitting his pants in your classroom when you were five is now the minister of whatever in some government job. That idiot from school is now starting wars.

Here's Rumsfeld selling the bullshit package to government spokesman Tim Russert.



Sunday, October 31, 2010

Halloween... When the World swaps masks!

I'm a liberal.

I was at the rally in Washington and it was awesome. The turnout defeated Glenn Beck's corporate sponsered rally in attendance figures and that was something that touched my heart. No really! I'm not laughing into my glass of vodka at 5AM on Sunday morning. Actually I am. But it was something that got me all misty, especially at the end when John Stewert gave his heartfelt speech. I mean, who could not oppose a rally to 'restore sanity' to America?

I mean the whole world is behind the idea that America should be sane. Right?

Unfortunately, the whole world is a comedy show. Despite all those good and honest people showing up, 99% of which I'm sure I could sit down with in a bar and enter new realities with while agreeing on everything, there is still a shortcoming. All my new found rally friends would agree that there are things most Americans don't often get to see within the bubble of their own media, and that is the fucking military lock down that America has on most of the world's landmass.
Look at this shit.

Take a look at the map. Just imagine how the rest of the world 'feels'. Not to whip out my pussy but you see there's a big difference between intention and fucking reality. The reality is that the world is under existential siege by an American military machine that has a yearly budget greater than the rest of the world's militaries combined. Don't believe me? Let me citation that shit!

So you see how the rest of the world looks at the 'Restore Sanity" reality. Don't get me wrong, it's awesome to see you guys represent. To witness a sea of sane people in Washington is awesome. The rest of the world was impressed. But not really. Because, despite this rally, you people have no power and it's kind of awkward because the rest of the world realized this years ago. I hate to tell you that you have no power to affect change.

On a lighter note.

It's Halloween.

Now that's a date I remember in 2002.

One million people turned out on London streets protesting the Iraq War on that date. You see, I'm a fucking screaming liberal in case there is any doubt. The fact that I like to watch the bloodshed from my basement is my own fucking business. The fact that I like jerking off to war in my basement is my own fucking business. I'm dysfunctional and schizophrenic and so am I.

One million people instinctively knew the premise for war was bullshit. Fucking WMD bullshit was hilarious. Huge numbers turned out on American streets in subsequent protests. To no avail. They fucking grabbed that landmass no matter what. WMDs were the interim function to deny China and Russia of that easily extractable oil. In the global chessgame, the US made its move. What I find kinda sad, what makes be down another vodka, is seeing all those reasonable people, 215,000 American citizens, good people, reasonable people, intelligent people, all assembled in Washington for basically a reason that will be forgotten about in 30 days. Also, the assembly is arguing for things that those who run the country find contemptable. And I'm not talking Obama. I'm talking about the people who actually run the country!

You want a global analysis?

Well you're getting one anyway. Here's my dump...

Iran:

...is basically scared shitless because they're surrounded by Americans; in the west by Iraqi Americans and to the east and north by Afghanistan Americans. The Indian Ocean has two US Carrier Groups doing circles off the Iranian coast, basically doing a dance and showing how much they could fuck you if they really wanted to.  If I lived in Iran, I'd be shitting myself as a citizen. As a young person I'm pissed at the fucking failure of the green revolution and stolen elections but most of my protest was begging the nutjobs in charge of Iran to just be a little more friendly so the rest of the world stops hating us. Hopefully before we all get nuked! The only response from threatened people... After some thought... Nuclear program engage! It's the only way to not get bombed by the foreign haters! A logical move on our part, right?

Take the Chinese next,

Savvy intelligent fuckers run by totalitarian top down capitalistic engineers. They are surrounded by the US Okinawa base in Japan to the east, a nice dose of Aegis Cruisers between the mainland and Taiwan to the southeast, a nuclear pact with India on their Southern border, Afghanistan in the Southwest and a shitload of oil deals with the other 'stans below their immediate borders south and east of the Himalayas. China sees the Americans as dumbfucks with military superiority but declining economic power. From their point of view in the global chess game, it's easier to sit back, avoid confrontation and let the US destroy itself all by itself. A glimpse at their internal politics and John Boehner's tan means these people are already fucked.

The Russians:

Russia views the John Stewert rally as a lollercaust. Putin would have long ago had someone put bullets in Stewer'ts head in his building's elevator. Clean like. When the media goes shitstorm you stare in the camera and say you had nothing to do with it and then go kill a bear Russia style. Fucking brass balls. Having as many nukes as the Americans gives the Russians serious leverage. Just because the Soviet shit collapsed doesn't mean Russia feels any the less. Capitalism is dodgy and America's banking crisis and treasury rape proves it. Meanwhile, we Russians have shitloads of oil and natural gas. The US under Bush gets all snotty by planting missile intercept bases in our former buffer territories like Poland and Czech Republic? Fine, we are weaker now and you call it liberty, but we're coming for you in the long run. When your Middle East buddies run out of oil, you will come running to us and that is how we will extract our revenge. Fucking Russians are boiling quietly, you rally going Americans need to be aware of that shit.

A rally to restore sanity...

What Americans don't understand or agree on is what a global definition of 'sanity' is.

And that's why the rest of the world is subdued. What possible change can you have? Many tried it by voting for Obama but it turns out that all that change was corporate manipulation. He was bought and paid for just like every politician is today in American politics. No mention of this at the 'rally'. No mention of how elections are funded. No call for a true light shined on how decision making is made in the world's only military superpower. No mention of what corporation owns Comedy Central and therefore gave the greenlight for this rally to even happen in the first place (with ads running in the bottom bar of my Comedy Central feed).

Sadly, the whole rally achieved no purpose. I dare you to remember it in two months time and show me what it achieved.

I'm a fucking downer. I hate my life. I hate the fact that I notice this shit. But it's not my fault.

The whole world is subtley at war, gently and kindly but mostly economically.

The 'Rally for Sanity' made my day, but as far as the rest of the world is concerned, it's some strange blip, highlighting the dichotomy of what many liberal Americans believe they are about and what the rest of the world sees as their kindly inability to halt the runaway imperialist juggernaut.

Liberalism, fair dealing and calls to power to act reasonably get you nowhere in modern America politics. Neither does 215,000 people assembling in front of the Capitol. None of it will affect the mid term elections. The powers that be don't give a shit. They privately own mass media. They privately select and elect candidates based on the money they input into elections.

Democracy is a quaint idea for ancient Greeks.

Meanwhile, the powers that be know not to give a shit about rallys and public displays of reasonableness.

They own the cops and the armed forces and history says that violence is the only thing that ever changes the world.

Anyone want to go wreck some shit?

Friday, October 29, 2010

North Korea v South Korea




The North Korea v South Korea hypothetical war is a war that's never going to happen.

Why? Because it just can't be allowed to happen on all sides.

You've got Kim Jong Il up there in the starving North surrounded by his cult of personality, polishing off a bottle of Hennessy every night in his palatial mansion while surfing porn on the only non cock blocked internet in North Korea. His health is fucked and he's about to hand the gravy train off to one of his sons. He picked the youngest one because he's the least retarded and therefore the least likely to start a war with the South and, by doing so, remove the entire "Kim" family from the human genepool. The North has a huge army but shit equipment and a shit airforce. All they have is a shitload of brainwashed youngmen that they could toss into the ring as human wave attacks like the Red Army did against the Germans in 1941. Result: 3 million casualties for nothing.

In the South, they've got a rich 'democracy' (are there any real democracies in the world today?) well aware that its capital is in artillery range of their nutty brother. They get a little touchy about this. South Korea is like some famous movie star who has this awkward little brother who has a habit of masturbating in public and ruining famous older brother's credibility. You can slap him around for doing it but that'll just cause you even more trouble for child abuse. Your only choice is to sit there and enjoy your prosperity and accept the fact that your brother jizzes on you every so often.

Also, the US has thirty thousand troops in the DMZ, so any conflict here will draw in the US which supplies/allows North Korea heating oil and rice in exchange for them not pulling their dick out of their pants.

Still more, China, that country with 1.3 billion people and who bought more new automobiles than the US last year, well, you see, they use North Korea as a buffer zone on the Asian peninsula against encroaching capitalism. LOL seriously! China slaps the shit out of Kim Jong anytime he gets 'ronery' and tries shit with the South because they have no interest in anything that draws the Americans onto the Asian mainland anymoreso than they are already. (Japan, Afghanistan, trade/oil deals with the other 'stans south and west of the Himalayas)

China is run by savvy engineers who know that the only way to win the global chess game is to win structurally and economically. They view the Americans as trigger happy dumbfucks with a big navy, nukes and no money. Having no money makes Americans mad. China would prefer to keep quiet about it, not say anything about the precarious fiscal situation and allow America to destroy itself all by itself which is a pretty good bet if you're Chinese and watch US reality TV.

So put down the popcorn, there is never gonna be a war on the Korean peninsula because big guys behind the scenes have too much to lose.

Israel in Northern Iraq?

It's embarrassing that world media ignore this shit.

The world burns because nobody in the 'First World' knows what the fuck is going on.

Actually, not true.

Everybody 'in the First World' knows exactly what's going on but the thing is, nobody gives a shit!

Is that the media's fault?

Yes and no. That's a question requiring a long thought out answer and I'm a bottle of vodka down with the sun coming up so fuck off do your own existential analysis. What follows is shit I wrote a few days ago in response to Israelis in Kurd occupied Kirkuk...

Want a history lesson?

Go fucking google "Kurd" why don't you! After you navigate to the wiki page notice how these people have been fucked since day one. In Northern Iraq, life or death happens on a daily basis under Saddam. These people were gassed, suppressed and ass fucked. The Turks right now bomb them often. We in the First World 'civilized counties' get to ignore their shitlife because they don't I.E.D. Americans so they're pretty much under the radar as far as international media goes. But the thing is that this small northern state that the Iraqi Kurds have carved out for themselves is no desert shithole. With vast oilfields around its capital in Kirkuk and decent infrastructure to exploit it, the Kurds are the quiet success story of the whole Iraqi clusterfuck.

Oh yeah, Mossad in Northern Iraq! That's what I started out talking about.

Obvious infiltration is obvious!

You see, the Israelis are training Kurdish security and that is no surprise. This is ostensibly a proxy action by Israel against Turkey which has a fear of an independent Kurdish state in Northern Iraq, centered on Kirkuk and boasting that vast oil field money. Since there are many Kurds in southern Turkey bordering Iraq, Turkey fears a well funded independence movement and state on their southern border that may blossom and include claims on Turkish territory.

This is primarily why the Turks denied the Americans use of their airbases when the Americans wanted to institute that 'shock and awe' policy that worked out so well in 2003. The Israelis were then brought in by the Americans after Iraq had been conquered as a common courtesy to the US's main ally in the Middle East shithole. Mossad agents used this invitation to train Kurds.

Why?

This was Turkey's punishment for non support of the US when the imperial machine stomped into the heart of the world's last great fossil fuel reserve. The US's own little private fuck you to those pesky Turks who voted unanimously by the exercise of 'democracy' in their parliament not to allow US bombing runs from their soil. Shit like that gets remembered by the Pentagon. Hence, as punishment, they subcontract the dirty hit squad work to the Israelis so as not make a blip in international media about this subtle US knife stab to the back; except of course on shitty little blogs that nobody reads like this one.

The Israelis fear Turkey as it stands because it is a powerful regional rival, is a Muslim democracy, may gain EU membership at some point, tries to exert influence in Medditeranean affairs and has sympathetic religious ties with all of Israel's enemies.

The flotilla incident is the perfect example of this in recent times. The Turks are well aware of Israeli subterfuge and used the flotilla incident to push some Israeli buttons. The Israelis, being the reactionary, hyper sensitive fucks that they are, handed the media narrative over to their enemies by murdering ten Turkish citizens on that 'international humanitarian mission'. Tensions rose. Israel's enemies jerked off on the idiocy. The Israeli embassy in Istanbul was stoned before the cops got there just in time to stop it from being overrun.

The incident is merely a symptom of chess game moves in the Levant since 1948.

Right now, it is in Israel's interest to bolster Kurdish independence in northern Iraq as a thorn in the side of Turkey, using the possible future state of "Kurdistan" as an existential threat. Isreal uses the weight of the American military to back up this threat and merely provides Mossad agents on the ground to train the 'dissidents' against Turkish territorial soverignty required to provide this threat. This is a very cheap operation in monetary terms for Israel (the only cost being the supplying of military trainers) the brunt of the costs being carried by the Americans as they have spent trillions holding down the rest of Iraq for seven years.

Mossad is in Iraq. The fact of this isn't even a "conspiracy".

The real 'conspiracy' I find is the foreign policy of all countries on the world stage and how the discrepency between what is really happening in the world and what the general public takes for truth on the nightly news; now there's the real conspiracy... human stupidity.

More on that in future posts.